Iranian crypto outflows spike 700% after US-Israeli airstrikes

Iran's largest cryptocurrency exchange, Nobitex, experienced a dramatic surge in crypto withdrawals, exceeding 700% to over $500,000 within minutes of the US and Israel initiating strikes on Saturday. While initial data showed outflows reaching nearly $3 million in a single hour, widespread internet outages subsequently curbed further withdrawals.

Analysis of Outflow Surge

Blockchain analytics firm Elliptic reported the significant spike, suggesting it potentially represented capital flight from Iran. Elliptic noted that funds were often sent to foreign crypto exchanges, allowing for movement out of the country while bypassing some global banking system scrutiny.

However, TRM Labs, another crypto forensics platform, attributed the sharp decline in outflows following Saturday's events to the Iranian regime enforcing strict internet blackouts. TRM Labs stated that Iran's internet connectivity dropped by approximately 99% shortly after the conflict began. Contrary to Elliptic's assessment, TRM Labs observed that the country's crypto ecosystem was experiencing a downturn in both transactions and volume due to these internet restrictions, rather than an acceleration or capital flight.

Geopolitical Context and Banking Instability

The surge in crypto outflows occurred amidst escalating tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran, with the US and Israel reportedly seeking to topple the Iranian regime and curb its nuclear and missile programs. Iran had responded with its own airstrikes on neighboring countries, contributing to regional instability.

Iranians have increasingly relied on cryptocurrencies to store and transfer funds, circumventing the nation's fragile banking system and extensive international sanctions. This reliance is further underscored by past banking crises, such as the bankruptcy of Ayandeh Bank in October, which accumulated $5.1 billion in losses and nearly $3 billion in debt, affecting over 42 million customers. Additionally, eight other local banks were previously identified as at risk of dissolution by Iran's central bank.

Nobitex, which handles approximately 87% of Iran's crypto transaction volume and served over 11 million users in 2025 with about $7.2 billion in trades, has also faced its own challenges, including an $81 million hack in June.