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Quick market read from this story
Bitcoin futures open interest declined to $32 billion, lowest since August 2024 in BTC terms
Annualized premium on Bitcoin monthly futures dropped to 2%, indicating reduced demand for leveraged positions
Despite futures demand drop, CME Bitcoin futures open interest remains at $7.5 billion, suggesting institutional presence
Bitcoin options market shows balanced demand with put-to-call premiums near 0.7, indicating no major stress.
Deep Dive
Bitcoin (BTC) price has seen a 10% increase since retesting $63,000 on Saturday, offering a glimmer of hope for bulls amidst geopolitical tensions affecting stock markets. However, demand for Bitcoin futures has been declining, with open interest reaching its lowest levels since August 2024, leading to concerns that institutional investors might be withdrawing from the market.
The aggregate open interest for Bitcoin futures on major exchanges dropped to $32 billion on Sunday, a 20% decrease from the previous month. When adjusted for price changes, the demand for BTC futures in Bitcoin terms reached its lowest point since August 2024, at 491,300 BTC. This decline is partly attributed to the forced liquidation of bullish positions that were caught off guard.
Demand for leveraged bullish positions has been notably absent since the all-time high of $126,200 in October 2025. The annualized premium (basis rate) on Bitcoin monthly futures contracts fell to a one-year low of 2%. Typically, under neutral market conditions, this metric ranges between 5% and 10% to compensate for longer settlement periods. The basis rate has struggled to maintain bullish levels for the past 12 months, even during a significant rally between April and May 2025.
Bitcoin's underperformance compared to gold and stock markets may have diverted investor attention. However, claims of institutional investors exiting the market are premature, given that spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are trading over $3 billion daily. These ETFs are held by major mutual and pension fund managers. Additionally, publicly listed companies hold over $79 billion in Bitcoin, including entities like Strategy (MSTR US), MARA Holdings (MARA US), XXI (XXI US), and Metaplanet (MPLTF US). Countries such as Bhutan, El Salvador, and the United Arab Emirates have also increased their Bitcoin holdings, indicating that institutional adoption is far from negligible.
The Bitcoin options market further supports the idea that derivatives are functioning as expected, despite repeated failures to reclaim the $72,000 level. The put-to-call options premium remained near 0.7 on Monday, indicating lower demand for put (sell) options compared to call (buy) options. A brief surge in demand for bearish strategies on Friday was short-lived, suggesting no significant distress in the options market.
While derivatives data suggests a lack of strong bullish conviction, particularly with Bitcoin trading 45% below its all-time high, there is no concrete evidence of institutional players leaving. The $7.5 billion in Bitcoin futures open interest on the CME serves as a clear indicator of ongoing institutional activity. The market remains balanced, with every short order matched by a long order.
The cryptocurrency market, valued at $1.4 trillion, has demonstrated resilience. Although it is uncertain if $60,000 represents the absolute bottom for this market cycle, Bitcoin has reaffirmed its status as a secure asset with a fixed supply, showing no signs of failure.
Source, catalyst, and sector overlap from the latest feed.
US authorities are seeking to recover $327,829 in USDt linked to a romance scam. The funds were traced to cryptocurrency wallets seized by the Justice Department. Tether has frozen approximately $4.2 billion in USDt connected to illicit activities since 2023.
TD Securities views NYSE's tokenized equities plan as a market structure turning point for institutional adoption. The NYSE platform aims for 24-hour trading and near-instant settlement of tokenized stocks and ETFs. This development integrates blockchain settlement within existing US market rules and NBBO requirements. Tokenized assets, particularly RWAs, have seen continued capital inflows despite broader market volatility.
Bitfinex Securities is resuming USDt-denominated bond issuances on Bitcoin's Liquid Network. Previous issuances totaled $6.2 million, with four offerings and over $1.1 million in coupon payments made. The bonds offer crypto-native investors yield on USDt holdings, targeting emerging market private credit. This occurs amidst ongoing regulatory debate in the US regarding stablecoin yield products.
Chainlink CCIP enables cbBTC transfers from Base to Monad. Over $5 billion in Bitcoin-backed liquidity can now enter Monad's DeFi ecosystem. Monad aims to attract transaction-intensive financial applications with its high-throughput EVM-compatible L1. This integration enhances Bitcoin's utility by enabling yield generation opportunities within Monad's DeFi.
US lawmakers face gridlock and partisan divides slowing comprehensive digital asset market structure bill progress. Debates over stablecoin yield and upcoming midterm elections further complicate legislative advancement. Market cooling has reduced urgency for new crypto legislation compared to periods of high market performance. A Senate Banking Committee bill on securities laws remains unaddressed after a cancelled markup.
ETH has experienced six consecutive monthly price declines, a streak not seen since the 2018 crypto winter. Despite record network usage, ETH's price has fallen approximately 60% from its all-time high. Derivatives data shows a significant drop in ETH futures open interest and a premium on downside protection in options markets. US-listed Ethereum ETFs have seen $2.6 billion in outflows over the past four months, and major stablecoin market caps have slowed.
Bitcoin surged over 6% to near $70k during U.S. market open, driven by U.S. hours liquidity and institutional flows via ETFs and CME futures, not liquidations. A sustained CME premium above 1% suggests ongoing institutional demand, while oil price volatility and ETF inflows remain key factors to watch.
Nasdaq has filed a proposal with the SEC to list binary options on the Nasdaq-100 index, allowing for yes-or-no bets on market direction. This move mirrors the growing trend of prediction markets entering regulated financial spaces, with Cboe and crypto exchanges like Coinbase and Gemini also expanding in this area.
XRPL is proposing a new derivatives sidechain offering 200x leverage and on-chain options trading, aiming to compete in the $1T derivatives market. The development leverages XRPL's existing infrastructure and security, inspired by successful specialized derivatives chains.
Bitcoin showed resilience, dropping only 3% during initial Iran conflict escalation and recovering sharply, indicating potential strength despite geopolitical shock. Hyperliquid saw record open interest and its HYPE token rallied significantly as it facilitated 24/7 trading of war-related events. Bitcoin ETFs recorded substantial net inflows last week ($787M), suggesting continued institutional demand.
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Crypto markets declined as geopolitical tensions escalated following reports of a US-Israel strike on Iran. Bitcoin dropped to around $66,127 from a brief high of $68,000. Ethereum fell to near $1,947, down approximately 2.46% in 24 hours. Investors moved towards traditional safe-haven assets like oil, gold, and silver, indicating reduced risk appetite for crypto.
Deloitte has completed the first attestation report for Tether's USAT stablecoin. USAT reserves totaled $17.6 million against $17.5 million in circulating supply as of Jan. 31. USAT reserves consist of cash and U.S. Treasuries held domestically. This move aims to build trust for USAT within the U.S. regulatory framework, differentiating it from Tether's global USDT.
New biodegradable packaging film developed from milk protein, starch, and volcanic clay. Material exhibits 1,000x reduction in water vapor permeability compared to similar biopolymer films. Film fully degrades in soil within approximately 13 weeks. Potential for low-tech scaling and application in developing countries.
PayPay, holding a 40% stake in Binance Japan, is pursuing a Nasdaq IPO aiming to raise up to $1.1 billion. The IPO targets a valuation exceeding $10 billion for the Japanese payments firm. PayPay's partnership with Binance Japan aims to integrate crypto with its cashless payment services. The IPO listing was postponed due to global market volatility following geopolitical events.
Ripple unlocked 1 billion XRP from escrow, valued at approximately $1.377 billion. XRP price saw minimal reaction, rising 0.9% post-unlock, despite a 16.45% drop in February. Solana led market rebound with an 11% price surge to $88.89 following a $500M liquidation event. Elon Musk drew parallels between AI firm Anthropic and the collapsed FTX exchange.
Ethereum to implement Proposer-Builder Separation (ePBS) and Fork-Choice-Enforced Inclusion Lists (FOCIL) via Glamsterdam and Hegota upgrades this year. ePBS aims to decentralize block building and mitigate MEV, while FOCIL will prevent transaction censorship. Cardano's upcoming Midnight sidechain will offer similar privacy and transaction separation benefits. ETH and ADA prices are showing positive movement, influenced by broader market rallies and Bitcoin's performance.
Solana price is consolidating within a three-week triangle pattern. A break above $88.60 resistance is eyed as a key signal for potential upside. Solana has reclaimed the Ichimoku cloud on the four-hour chart for the first time since January. Moving averages (50 MA crossing 100 MA) also indicate a short-term momentum shift.
Bitcoin mixers enhance privacy by obscuring transaction origins through pooling and redistribution. Mixero.io offers CoinJoin with an optional Monero bridge, starting at 0.7% fees. Tornado Cash, a decentralized Ethereum mixer, has over $1 billion TVL. Wasabi Wallet integrates CoinJoin with a 0.3% coordinator fee, waived for small transactions.
US prosecutors seek forfeiture of $327,829 in USDT linked to a crypto romance scam. Victim was defrauded after being convinced to invest in a fake cryptocurrency opportunity. Funds were laundered through multiple wallets and converted to USDT. This action follows recent warnings from US prosecutors about crypto-related romance scams.
Core Scientific reported Q4 revenue of $79.8 million, missing estimates of $122.08 million. The company posted a Q4 loss of $0.42 per share, wider than the expected $0.08 loss. Core Scientific is expanding its colocation platform and AI-focused infrastructure services. Riot Platforms reported Q4 revenue of $647.4 million, significantly exceeding estimates.
OpenAI secured a Pentagon deal for AI deployment in classified environments. Contract language allows "all lawful purposes," raising concerns about AI use in surveillance and weapons. Public backlash led to a surge in Anthropic's Claude app downloads, surpassing ChatGPT. A philosophical difference exists between OpenAI and Anthropic regarding contract safeguards versus technical and legal frameworks.
Ripple executed its largest RLUSD stablecoin mint to date, totaling 69 million tokens. The minted RLUSD tokens are reportedly routed to the Gemini exchange. RLUSD market cap has surpassed $1.5 billion, indicating significant supply growth. Recent exchange integrations and partnerships, including Binance and LMAX Group, are driving RLUSD adoption.
US Supreme Court declined to hear AI copyright case Human authorship rule for copyright protection remains intact AI-generated works continue to face legal limits on intellectual property claims
Digital asset investment products saw $1 billion in inflows, reversing five weeks of outflows. Bitcoin attracted $881 million, leading the recovery, while Ethereum saw $117 million in inflows. Solana attracted $53.8 million in inflows last week, contributing to $156 million year-to-date. Solana price action shows consolidation between $82.00 support and $88.20 resistance.
Signal context only. Validate with price action, liquidity, and risk limits before taking a position.
