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Nobitex, Iran's largest crypto exchange, showed no signs of user-driven capital flight post-strike
TRM Labs attributes spike in Nobitex wallet activity to routine liquidity management, not panic withdrawals
Chainalysis reported $10.3 million in digital assets left Iranian exchanges between Feb
28 and March 2
Hourly outflows from Iranian exchanges briefly surged over 873% higher than the 2026 average.
Deep Dive
Following US-Israeli strikes on Iran, Nobitex, Iran's largest cryptocurrency exchange, did not exhibit signs of significant user-driven withdrawal activity. While blockchain data indicated a brief surge in activity and increased outflows from Iranian exchanges generally, analyses from TRM Labs and Chainalysis suggest these movements were not primarily driven by users withdrawing funds from Nobitex.
A TRM Labs report examining on-chain activity around Nobitex after strikes began on February 28th noted an increase in transfers, including over $35 million moved from hot to cold storage. However, TRM attributed these movements to the exchange's routine internal treasury operations and liquidity management rather than user-initiated withdrawals, based on historical behavior and wallet analysis.
Nobitex is a central platform in Iran's crypto ecosystem, having processed tens of billions of dollars in transaction volume since 2019, with over $5 billion processed since 2025 alone.
In June 2025, Nobitex experienced a $90 million hack attributed to the hacking group Predatory Sparrow. The breach exposed details of the exchange's internal architecture, including its multi-layer custody structure and automated transaction routing systems.
To stabilize operations post-hack, Nobitex utilized reserves from Bitcoin mining activity. TRM reported that approximately $2.7 million was consolidated from over 100 dormant mining-linked wallets shortly after the incident. The exchange gradually resumed services in stages later in 2025.
Concurrently, a Chainalysis report indicated that approximately $10.3 million in digital assets left Iranian exchanges between February 28 and March 2. Hourly outflows saw a significant surge, reaching up to 873% higher than the 2026 average during this period.
Chainalysis suggested these outflows could represent ordinary Iranians moving funds to self-custody for economic hedging, exchanges shifting liquidity, or state-aligned actors using domestic exchanges to move funds internationally under sanctions pressure.
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Bitcoin price jumped over 5% to around $72,000 on Wednesday. Technical analysis suggests a symmetrical triangle breakout could target $80,000 in March. An unfilled CME futures gap exists between $79,660 and $81,210, acting as a potential magnet. Polymarket odds show increased conviction for Bitcoin reaching $80,000 in March.
Kraken Financial is the first crypto company to receive a master account from the US Federal Reserve. This grants Kraken direct access to the Fed's payment systems, moving money on the same rails as banks. The approval signifies a potentially softer regulatory tone from the Fed towards the crypto industry. Kraken's banking unit does not receive full banking privileges like interest on reserves.
FATF warns stablecoins are increasingly used for sanctions evasion. P2P stablecoin transfers via self-custody wallets can bypass AML checks. FATF urges countries to assess risks and apply proportionate safeguards for stablecoins.
FATF identifies P2P stablecoin transfers via self-custody wallets as a key vulnerability for AML oversight. Stablecoins accounted for 84% of illicit transaction volume in 2025, according to Chainalysis. FATF urges countries to assess risks and apply proportionate safeguards for stablecoin arrangements. Illicit activity remains a small share of total on-chain volume, less than 1%.
Ex-OpenAI researcher's hedge fund Situational Awareness LP manages $5.52 billion in equity exposure. The fund has made significant bets on Bitcoin miners. The fund also holds positions in power and data center companies.
CFTC eyes April approval for bringing true perpetual futures onshore to the US. Potential approval could shift significant derivatives volume from offshore to US-regulated venues. Onshore perps aim to improve US price discovery, risk management, and reduce counterparty concentration. Broader scenario suggests US derivatives volume could reach $8.5-12.8 billion daily if scalability is achieved.
Kraken's banking unit secured Federal Reserve master account access. This grants direct access to the Fed's core payment systems. The account has limitations, similar to the Fed's 'skinny' master account proposal. This move improves fiat deposit and withdrawal efficiency for digital asset markets.
Kraken Financial is the first crypto firm to obtain a Federal Reserve master account. Direct access to Fedwire allows for dollar settlements without intermediary banks. This integration enhances Kraken's institutional credibility and transaction efficiency. The development signifies a step towards integrating digital assets with traditional finance.
Kraken is the first crypto firm to gain direct access to Federal Reserve payment rails. This integration allows for direct fiat settlement, reducing reliance on intermediary banks. The move signifies a structural shift towards deeper integration between crypto and traditional finance. This precedent could influence regulatory approaches and pave the way for other crypto platforms.
Morgan Stanley filed a prospectus for a proposed Bitcoin Trust ETF. BNY Mellon and Coinbase Custody will provide custody services for the ETF. The ETF will directly hold Bitcoin and use CoinDesk Bitcoin Benchmark for NAV calculation. Custody insurance exists but may not cover all potential losses.
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Bitcoin reached a one-month high, surpassing $71,000, driven by geopolitical stability hopes and potential US regulatory clarity. The Clarity Act, aimed at legalizing stablecoins, is speculated to be nearing passage, potentially benefiting altcoins. Bitcoin's oversold condition prior to recent geopolitical events has likely revived investor interest, including institutional inflows into spot ETFs. Traders anticipate continued volatility, especially if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, impacting oil prices.
NEAR Protocol price has risen 18% in 24 hours, completing the cup formation of a cup and handle pattern. A breakout above $1.44 could trigger a 75% rally towards $2.11-$2.53, but shorts are increasing. Derivatives data shows open interest surged to $174 million with a negative funding rate, indicating bearish sentiment among leverage traders. Hidden bearish divergence on RSI suggests potential weakness or a pullback, contrasting with the bullish chart pattern.
Iranians moved $10.3M in Bitcoin from exchanges to self-custody wallets amid geopolitical stress. Bitcoin price surged nearly 7% in 24 hours and 9% in 7 days, outperforming traditional markets. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.45B in net inflows over five trading days ending March 2, with another $225M on March 3. Taker Buy Sell Ratio on Binance reached 1.18, indicating stronger buy-side pressure in derivatives markets.
Bitcoin surpassed $71,000, triggering $433 million in liquidations. Rally driven by positioning resets, lower post-halving supply elasticity, and improving liquidity expectations. Geopolitical escalation could reverse gains; containment may fuel further upside. Analysts suggest sustainability hinges on liquidity and geopolitical risks, with mixed outlooks on continued upside.
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Bitcoin reached a one-month high of $71,800, approaching previous resistance near $72,000. Rally driven by increased demand for haven assets amid escalating Middle East conflict. Gold and silver also saw significant gains, indicating a broader risk-off sentiment shift. Altcoins, particularly lower-market-cap tokens like KITE, AERO, and TAO, outperformed majors with double-digit gains.
Bitcoin price surged above $71,000 driven by five consecutive days of spot Bitcoin ETF inflows. Binance buy-to-sell ratio reached 1.18, the highest this year, indicating strong buying pressure. Trading volumes exceeded $1 billion per hour, supporting Bitcoin's upward price movement. Continued inflows and buying pressure suggest potential for further short-term gains.
Kraken's banking arm, Kraken Financial, has secured direct access to the Federal Reserve's master account. This grants Kraken direct access to Fedwire, a major interbank payment network, bypassing partner banks. The approval allows for potentially faster deposits and withdrawals for large traders and institutional clients. Access is limited; Kraken will not earn interest on reserves or access the Fed's emergency lending.
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