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Bitcoin has fallen 45% from its October 2025 all-time high, sparking debate about its market cycle. Grayscale argues this is a mid-cycle correction driven by macro factors and institutional adoption, not a bear market. While some analysts predict new highs in H1 2026 due to ETF inflows and regulatory clarity, others maintain the traditional four-year cycle. The market is split on whether this marks the start of Bitcoin's institutional era or a cyclical reset.
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XRP futures trading volume has surged by over 130%, indicating increased short-term speculation and potential for heightened volatility. While the price shows signs of a local rebound, it remains below key moving averages, suggesting the broader trend is still bearish. Traders are closely watching the $1.5 level as a significant target zone, with rapid directional changes possible due to leveraged trading.
An analyst suggests Bitcoin's market bottom may be near, particularly when priced against gold, potentially by February 2026. This contrasts with the USD-denominated forecast extending to late 2026. Macroeconomic factors and ETF outflows are noted, but large investors are seen accumulating, advocating for dollar-cost averaging.
The OCC's proposed rulemaking under the GENIUS Act addresses stablecoin yield procedures, introducing ambiguity around restrictions on how issuers and partners can offer interest payments. While some interpret this as a potential ban, others believe it aligns with the law and allows for rebuttal of presumptions. Companies like Coinbase and Circle may need to adjust their agreements, and the outcome could impact the broader market structure legislation.
Crypto exchange Backpack is launching a token-to-equity program, strategically structuring it to avoid direct security classification for the token. Users must join a VIP program, which involves staking the token and meeting trading requirements, to be eligible for equity conversion. This approach aims to navigate complex securities regulations, with a fallback plan to register tokens as securities during an IPO if necessary.
MicroStrategy's new dividend policy is facing criticism, with some analysts likening it to a Ponzi scheme due to its reliance on Bitcoin's volatile price and the need for continuous capital inflow. This development occurs during a bearish Bitcoin market, raising concerns about the sustainability of the strategy. Proponents, however, maintain it's a straightforward approach combining financial engineering with long-term Bitcoin exposure.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a significant five-week outflow streak totaling $3.8 billion, indicating a contraction in institutional positioning. However, this trend reversed with approximately $875.5 million in net inflows recorded between February 20th and 27th, suggesting a potential reset rather than a structural exit. Traders should monitor continued inflow trends, Bitcoin's reaction to macro events, and its ability to rise without ETF support to gauge the strength of institutional demand.
Pi Network's Pi Coin is trading near historic lows, down over 94% from its all-time high, despite celebrating its first Open Network anniversary. An analyst suggests current pricing is driven by liquidity and speculation rather than utility, with early price action influenced by hype and thin markets. The project's long-term success hinges on ecosystem development and adoption.
X (formerly Twitter) has updated its paid partnership policy, effectively restricting crypto and financial product promotions, following prior algorithmic deprioritization. Meanwhile, Shiba Inu (SHIB) investors are watching for potential March gains, referencing its historic 24% average monthly return. Cardano creator Charles Hoskinson celebrated the launch of USDCx on Cardano and teased further ecosystem developments, while also criticizing X's stance on crypto.
Bitcoin has shown resilience, reversing sharp initial volatility triggered by Middle East geopolitical events. A significant short squeeze flushed out leveraged positions, while spot demand, indicated by Coinbase premium, suggests underlying strength. Traders are watching key technical levels and leverage buildup for signs of a constructive short-term outlook.
BankMe (BANK) is launching a Solana-based token representing a professional poker bankroll. The token's capital will be used for high-stakes tournament buy-ins, with a fixed supply of 1 billion tokens and a Token Generation Event (TGE) set for March 4, 2026. Public sale tokens will be 100% unlocked at TGE, while private sale allocations will have a 6-month vesting period.
SpaceX's significant Bitcoin holdings (8,285 BTC, ~$545M) will be disclosed in its upcoming IPO filing, highlighting a $235M paper loss over three months. This mirrors Tesla's past volatility reporting, potentially creating headline risk despite SpaceX's long-term HODL strategy. The disclosure comes amid a sharp Bitcoin correction.
Ethereum has rebounded towards the $2,000 level after a recent selloff, with analysts identifying $2,100 and $2,125 as key resistance zones. A sustained break above these levels is needed to strengthen the short-term structure and potentially target higher resistance near $2,400. Failure to overcome these hurdles could lead to renewed selling pressure.
Shiba Inu experienced a significant inflow of over 600 billion tokens to exchanges, historically a precursor to potential selling pressure. Despite this, the price is at a critical juncture, testing support zones with uncertain buyer follow-through. The market remains uncommitted, awaiting a decisive breakout from its current compressed structure.
Signal context only. Validate with price action, liquidity, and risk limits before taking a position.
Next week presents a confluence of high-impact events for crypto and stocks, driven by key US labor market data, particularly Nonfarm Payrolls, which will shape interest rate expectations. Big Tech earnings, including Broadcom, and AI-related commentary will also influence sentiment. Geopolitical tensions and UK regulatory developments add further layers of uncertainty and potential volatility.
