Construction begins at quantum facility big enough to break Bitcoin

Quantum computing company PsiQuantum is progressing towards its goal of building a functional quantum computer with the commencement of construction on a 1 million-qubit facility. This scale of computing power is considered by scientists to be sufficient to crack Bitcoin’s cryptography.

PsiQuantum co-founder Peter Shadbolt shared an update on X, formerly Twitter, showcasing the erection of 500 tons of steel at its Chicago site in just six days, which will house the quantum computer. The company announced in September that it had secured $1 billion in funding, in collaboration with chip maker Nvidia, to construct this facility. The design aims to accommodate quantum computers capable of functioning despite errors.

Implications for Bitcoin and AI

The facility is intended to house quantum computing power equivalent to tens of billions of typical computers, with the objective of making quantum computing commercially viable to support next-generation AI supercomputers. This development has prompted discussions within the Bitcoin community regarding the potential impact on the network's cryptography.

While some in the Bitcoin community have expressed concerns that quantum computing could compromise Bitcoin's security, potentially putting its $1.4 trillion network at risk, others, like Blockstream CEO Adam Back, believe quantum computers will not pose a significant threat for at least another decade. Bitcoin developers are currently debating the necessity and implications of a hard fork to address potential quantum threats.

The Bitcoin UTXO (unspent transaction output) wallets, particularly those associated with addresses that have never been spent since the cryptocurrency's inception, are considered the most vulnerable to quantum attacks. While estimates vary, the number of qubits required to break Bitcoin keys is decreasing as quantum research progresses.

Assessing the Quantum Threat to Bitcoin

A recent scientific paper suggested that approximately 100,000 qubits would be needed to break 2048-bit keys, whereas Bitcoin's encryption uses 256-bit keys. For context, the largest quantum computer currently available, from the California Institute of Technology, has 6,100 qubits.

PsiQuantum has stated that it has no intention of using its quantum computers to derive private keys from public keys. Co-founder Terry Rudolph clarified that the company's focus is not on attacking Bitcoin's cryptography.

Furthermore, research from crypto asset manager CoinShares indicated in February that only an estimated 10,230 Bitcoin, valued at $728.2 million, are both quantum-vulnerable and stored in wallet addresses with publicly visible cryptographic keys. CoinShares characterized a potential selloff of this amount as comparable to a routine trade.