Navigating Crypto News
CoinFeather
Navigating Crypto News
Quick market read from this story
Historical data suggests that when Bitcoin's supply in profit drops to around 50%, it has preceded significant bull runs, with past instances showing gains of over 655%.
The current market dynamic differs from previous cycles due to a substantial portion of Bitcoin being held by long-term holders like ETFs and corporations, who exhibit lower sensitivity to short-term price fluctuations, potentially altering the typical accumulation phase behavior.
Reduced short-term holder inflows to exchanges like Binance indicate a decrease in reactive selling pressure, aligning with valuation models that suggest limited downside risk relative to long-term upside potential.
While historical profitability metrics point to potential accumulation zones, the elevated profitability of long-term holders, driven by institutional adoption, suggests a potentially different market cycle evolution compared to prior bear market bottoms.
Deep Dive
The total supply of Bitcoin (BTC) in profit has reached 60.6%, a level historically associated with market cycle resets. This metric previously dipped to 50.8% on February 5, the lowest since January 2, 2023, leaving many holders at breakeven or at a loss. Similar conditions in past cycles have preceded significant upside movements, such as the 655% rally from $16,682 to $126,000 following the January 2023 low, and the surge from $6,500 to $69,000 after March 2020.
For the past five years, the 50–60% profitability range has consistently marked periods where a large portion of holders were near their cost basis. This scenario typically compresses unrealized gains and reduces the incentive to sell during market downturns. Historically, Bitcoin price bottoms were confirmed when the long-term holder net unrealized profit/loss (LTH-NUPL) turned negative, as observed in the 2015, 2018, and 2022 bear markets. However, the current LTH-NUPL reading is around 0.40, indicating that long-term holders remain in profit despite the overall supply profitability nearing cycle lows.
This divergence is attributed to a significant shift in market participants. Corporate entities and spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) now hold approximately 15.8% of the circulating supply (3,319,677 BTC). These institutional players tend to have longer holding periods and are less sensitive to short-term price volatility, reducing the forced selling pressure seen in previous cycles.
Data indicates a reduction in reactive selling from newer market participants. Short-term holder BTC flows to Binance fell to 25,000 BTC on March 25, a new market low compared to roughly 100,000 BTC during the early February sell-off. This suggests a decrease in immediate selling activity.
Valuation models, such as market-value to realized-value (MVRV) below 1, NUPL under -0.2, and a Puell Multiple near 0.35, historically signal periods of heavy retail pressure and undervalued conditions. While these metrics do not predict exact bottoms, they highlight zones where downside risk has been historically limited relative to long-term upside potential, offering insight into overall market positioning.
Source, catalyst, and sector overlap from the latest feed.
US lawmaker Stephen Lynch criticizes the SEC's reduced enforcement on crypto firms under the Trump administration, signaling potential ongoing regulatory uncertainty that could impact market confidence and asset valuations. The dismantling of the SEC's FinHub and a perceived lack of 'cop on the beat' suggests a less aggressive regulatory stance, which could embolden illicit actors but also potentially create space for innovation if clarity follows. Recent coordination memos between the SEC and CFTC, alongside an interpretative notice on crypto assets, indicate efforts to establish regulatory frameworks, though legislative progress on market structure remains a key factor for future clarity.
Nasdaq's tokenization initiatives, including supporting offshore platforms like Kraken, risk creating a bifurcated market for tokenized equities, potentially leading to price discrepancies and fragmented liquidity. The development signals a significant shift towards mainstream adoption of tokenized assets, with traditional exchanges exploring blockchain technology for equity trading, which could increase competition and introduce new trading paradigms. Investors may face challenges navigating dual markets for the same assets, potentially impacting traditional exchange activity and requiring new risk management strategies for price volatility across platforms.
Twenty One Capital's ascent to the second-largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder signals a shift in corporate treasury strategies, potentially indicating a preference for more conservative, long-term BTC accumulation over debt-fueled expansion. The sale of 15,133 BTC by MARA, attributed to servicing debt, serves as a cautionary tale for the industry, highlighting the risks of aggressive borrowing and the potential for capitulation among miners and treasury companies in challenging market conditions. The changing landscape of Bitcoin treasuries, with Twenty One Capital overtaking MARA, suggests a potential consolidation or re-evaluation of strategies within the crypto treasury and mining sectors, impacting investor sentiment towards these entities.
Institutional investors are increasing their Bitcoin allocation, evidenced by ETF inflows and asset manager filings, suggesting a potential floor around $70,000 despite broader market volatility. The potential for increased US retirement fund investment in Bitcoin via a proposed Labor Department rule and Coinbase's mortgage down payment initiative signals growing mainstream integration and liquidity unlocking mechanisms. Geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices are creating macro headwinds, causing US equity market sell-offs and capping Bitcoin's upside potential above $70,000, despite strong institutional demand. While institutional adoption is a bullish structural factor for Bitcoin, current macro risks from geopolitical instability and inflation concerns are creating near-term price suppression and volatility.
Japan's Financial Services Agency has issued warning letters to KuCoin for unregistered OTC derivatives trading, signaling continued regulatory scrutiny on exchanges operating in the region. This regulatory action by the FSA, following previous warnings and app removal requests, suggests a tightening environment for crypto exchanges targeting Japanese residents. The development highlights the ongoing risk of regulatory enforcement for platforms not adhering to local financial instrument laws, potentially impacting KuCoin's operations and user base in Japan.
Geopolitical de-escalation signals from the US President have provided a temporary reprieve for risk assets, allowing Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to pare earlier losses. The market's reaction highlights the sensitivity of crypto assets to broader macroeconomic and geopolitical events, with a pause in conflict potentially easing pressure on yields and risk appetite. While the immediate price action shows a modest recovery, the underlying concerns regarding rising bond yields and potential Fed rate hikes persist, suggesting that the crypto market's broader trend may remain under pressure.
Solana is testing a critical demand zone between $91.45 and $82.60, with failure to hold this level potentially leading to significant downside targets at $53.10, $35.40, and $23.60. Bearish technical patterns, including a rising wedge and a break below $120 support, suggest a continuation of the downtrend, with immediate downside risks towards $80 and $70-$65 if the current support fails. Despite bearish signals, Solana is also trading along a rising trendline support, presenting a potential recovery scenario above $100 if buyers defend the current levels and break through the $90-$95 resistance. Solana is at a decisive technical crossroads, trading near $87.65 with significant price compression, indicating a potential breakout setup that could lead to a rapid move above $100 or a deeper correction.
Geopolitical uncertainty stemming from Middle East conflict is driving defensive capital flows into stablecoins and liquid staking tokens, indicating a market preference for yield and capital preservation over speculative assets. Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced declines mirroring traditional markets, suggesting a correlation with broader macroeconomic sentiment and risk-off behavior among investors. Conflicting statements regarding Iran's willingness to negotiate have created volatility, with crypto markets reacting to shifts in geopolitical risk perception. Traders are positioning for potential downside in Bitcoin, with prediction markets showing a higher probability of a price drop to $55,000 than a significant rally.
Monument Bank's initiative to tokenize £250 million in retail deposits on the Midnight network signifies a significant step towards integrating traditional banking products with public blockchain infrastructure. This development, targeting mass-affluent clients and maintaining FSCS protection, could serve as a blueprint for other banks looking to leverage blockchain for core banking services, potentially increasing adoption of privacy-focused networks. The broader context of NYSE and Nasdaq advancing tokenized market infrastructure alongside this retail banking move suggests a growing institutional and regulatory acceptance of tokenization across various financial sectors. While the technical analysis indicates a consolidation phase for the Midnight token, the fundamental development of securing a U.K. bank for tokenized deposits presents a strong long-term bullish narrative for the project's utility and adoption.
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Coinbase's partnership with Better.com to offer crypto-backed mortgages signifies a significant step in integrating digital assets into traditional financial products, potentially increasing demand for collateralized crypto assets like BTC and USDC. The move leverages a recent FHFA directive, indicating a growing regulatory acceptance of crypto as collateral, which could pave the way for broader adoption and new financial instruments within the $18.5 trillion mortgage market. While offering homeownership without selling crypto, the product introduces liquidation risk tied to market volatility, requiring careful collateral management by borrowers and potentially creating new trading opportunities around collateral thresholds. The successful integration of crypto into conforming mortgages, as evidenced by Better.com's stock performance, suggests a positive market reception and could encourage further innovation in crypto-backed lending across the financial sector.
David Sacks' departure from his White House crypto role signifies the end of a specific policy push, leaving key market structure and stablecoin legislation unresolved. The unfinished legislative agenda suggests continued uncertainty in U.S. crypto regulation, potentially impacting investor confidence and market development. Sacks' continued advisory role on broader technology policy indicates a shift in focus but may not directly influence the immediate trajectory of crypto legislation.
A senior Democrat is questioning the regulatory basis for Kraken's limited Federal Reserve master account, potentially signaling increased scrutiny on crypto firms seeking direct access to traditional financial infrastructure. The inquiry by Representative Maxine Waters, a key figure in potential future financial policy, introduces uncertainty around the approval process for crypto-related financial services, which could impact other exchanges seeking similar access. This development highlights the ongoing tension between the crypto industry's push for integration with traditional finance and regulatory oversight, suggesting a cautious approach from policymakers despite recent approvals.
XRP ETFs experienced their first monthly net outflows in March after a strong launch, indicating a cooling of initial demand and suggesting that sustained institutional interest will require more than just early-wave enthusiasm. Despite ETF outflows, the broader institutional case for XRP remains robust, evidenced by significant Goldman Sachs exposure and a substantial percentage of institutional investors planning future allocations, highlighting a shift towards deeper integration beyond simple product subscriptions. Ripple's expansion into payments, custody, stablecoins, and prime brokerage, alongside XRPL's growing tokenization capabilities and RWA adoption, provides a more layered institutional narrative for XRP that transcends short-term ETF fund flows.
The Trump DOJ's inconsistent stance on prosecuting crypto privacy developers creates legal uncertainty, making it harder for developers to obtain binding legal clarity on their activities. Despite stated intentions not to prosecute, federal prosecutors have continued to pursue cases against developers of privacy tools, leading to convictions and ongoing trials. A recent Texas judge's ruling dismissed a developer's lawsuit due to the DOJ's stated policy, highlighting a legal loophole that allows for continued prosecution without clear standing for developers to challenge it. The lack of clear legal precedent and the DOJ's shifting approach to privacy software development pose a significant risk to innovation in the privacy-focused crypto sector.
OpenAI's decision to cancel its erotic chatbot mode, following the shelving of Sora, signals a strategic pivot towards a unified AI platform, potentially impacting investor sentiment towards specialized AI tools. The cancellation of the erotic chatbot mode, despite earlier plans, highlights the evolving ethical considerations and regulatory scrutiny surrounding AI development, which could influence future product roadmaps and market perception. While this development is primarily within the AI sector, the broader implications of AI companies navigating societal impact and user dependency could indirectly affect market confidence in AI-driven crypto projects.
A significant 1,086% surge in Shiba Inu's token burn rate, coupled with exchange reserves hitting a two-year low, suggests a tightening supply dynamic that could support price appreciation if demand remains consistent. The shift of SHIB tokens from exchanges to self-custodial wallets indicates increased long-term holder conviction, reducing immediate sell pressure and potentially creating a more favorable environment for price discovery. Despite the positive supply-side developments, SHIB is currently testing a key resistance level around $0.00000625, with trading volume not yet reflecting strong speculative interest, implying a need for further catalysts to break through.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse indicates a neutral stance on the Clarity Act, suggesting Ripple is not heavily invested in its passage despite acknowledging White House support. Garlinghouse's comments on stablecoins, particularly the potential for Ripple to launch its own compliant stablecoin, suggest a strategic move into the stablecoin market. The discussion around stablecoin proliferation and Ripple's past role in USDC minting highlights potential market shifts and competitive dynamics within the stablecoin sector.
GameStop has transitioned its Bitcoin holdings into an options income strategy, pledging BTC to Coinbase for covered calls, indicating a shift from a simple buy-and-hold approach. The company no longer directly holds its Bitcoin, now accounting for it as a receivable due to Coinbase's ability to rehypothecate the assets, altering its balance sheet treatment. While GameStop maintains economic exposure, the pledged Bitcoin is now encumbered by counterparty risk and derivative contracts, changing its liquidity and risk profile.
Wikipedia's new policy prohibiting AI-generated text for articles signals a growing concern over content accuracy and verifiability, potentially impacting platforms reliant on user-generated content. The distinction between AI-assisted copyediting and AI-generated content is crucial, with Wikipedia allowing the former under strict human oversight, highlighting a nuanced approach to AI integration. This development underscores the challenges in maintaining content integrity in the age of LLMs, a concern that could extend to other decentralized platforms and knowledge bases. While not a direct crypto event, the policy reflects broader societal discussions on AI's role and potential risks, which can indirectly influence investor sentiment towards AI-integrated crypto projects.
Signal context only. Validate with price action, liquidity, and risk limits before taking a position.
