Bitcoin Price Prediction: SMA Cross Signals Final Drop

Bitcoin is currently experiencing pressure on both short-term and higher time frame charts, with technical indicators suggesting a potential for further volatility. One analysis indicates the recent rebound may be corrective, while another points to a possible final bear market washout before a new bull cycle emerges.

Short-Term Rebound Analysis

A 1-hour BTC chart analysis suggests the latest upside move could be a temporary recovery rather than a full trend reversal. This is based on the rebound forming in three waves, a pattern often indicative of corrective action. The analysis highlights that Bitcoin is currently reacting to resistance in the $68,300 to $70,300 region, which encompasses key Fibonacci levels. The failure to break through this resistance suggests the move might be a Wave B or Wave 2 structure. A critical support level to watch is $64,974. As long as Bitcoin remains above this level, both scenarios remain possible. However, a break below $64,974 would likely favor a deeper decline and weaken the case for a corrective rebound. Upside targets are noted near $71,759 and $75,967, but the current short-term structure remains uncertain due to resistance rejection.

Long-Term Bear Market Washout Signal

A 3-day chart analysis by Ali Charts suggests that a Simple Moving Average (SMA) cross may signal a final bear market washout before a new bull cycle begins. Historically, this 50 SMA and 200 SMA cross has appeared after significant price drops from peaks, preceding one last deep selloff before a major bull cycle commences.

In the 2014 cycle, the cross appeared after a 72% drop, followed by another 52% decline 23 days later, marking the bottom. Similarly, in the 2018 cycle, the cross occurred after a 67% fall, followed by a 50% drop within 33 days. The 2022 cycle showed a similar pattern, with a 50% decline before the cross, followed by a 45% drop in 33 days, though the full bear structure took longer to complete, with a lower low forming 156 days later.

The analysis emphasizes that the SMA cross does not mark the exact bottom but rather serves as a warning that a final, deeper reset may occur before a stronger bull market begins. This historical pattern suggests that while a rebound is occurring, one last significant price reset could still be on the horizon.