Attorney Bill Morgan has pointed to this period as a potential turning point for both Ripple’s business strategy and XRP’s adoption in global finance.
The first decision will come from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which has twice delayed rulings on spot XRP ETF applications from CoinShares, Grayscale, and 21Shares. The regulator pushed the deadline to the end of October 2025, which under U.S. law is the final date for a decision. That means the SEC must either approve or reject the applications, with no further extensions allowed.
An approval would mark a landmark moment for XRP, opening the door for regulated investment products linked to its spot market to trade on U.S. exchanges. Such a move could dramatically expand access for institutional and retail investors, placing XRP in the same regulated product category as Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The second key development is Ripple’s application to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) for a U.S. national bank license. Filed on July 2, the OCC is legally required to issue a decision within 120 days, setting an October deadline. If granted, Ripple would become a nationally chartered bank, giving it the ability to broaden its role from cross-border payments into direct banking operations. Ripple’s significant XRP holdings could also provide it with strong leverage as part of its balance sheet structure.
According to Morgan, the simultaneous timing of these decisions could mark October as a “decisive turning point” for Ripple and XRP. Together, they would determine not only the regulatory status of XRP in financial markets but also Ripple’s place within the U.S. banking system.
Bullish case: If both the SEC approves a spot XRP ETF and the OCC grants Ripple its bank license, XRP could surge toward $1.50–$2.00 as institutional adoption accelerates and market confidence rises. A dual victory would represent the strongest regulatory backing in XRP’s history.
Base case: Should Ripple secure its bank license while the SEC rejects or delays the ETF, XRP may stabilize in the $0.80–$1.00 range. The banking license alone would still signal legitimacy, but without an ETF, upside momentum could remain capped.
Bearish case: If both applications are denied, XRP could fall back to $0.55–$0.60, as traders factor in regulatory headwinds and reduced institutional interest. While Ripple’s global operations would continue, U.S. market adoption could slow significantly.
With October shaping up as a make-or-break month, XRP’s price trajectory will hinge on how U.S. regulators choose to define its future role in finance.
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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