Trader Skepticism Grows as XRP Faces Q4 Drawdown
In the ever-tumultuous realm of cross-border payments crypto, XRP has been Ripple’s battle-hardened flagship, navigating SEC storms and regulatory seas to emerge as a top-tier contender. Yet, as October 2025 wanes, the Ripple effect is rippling with doubt. @WhaleInsider, tapping into Kalshi’s prediction markets, unleashed a stark revelation on X: The odds of XRP blasting to $4 or beyond by year-end have nosedived to a mere 20%. Once buoyed by ETF approvals and institutional inflows, this blue-chip alt now grapples with a savage correction, forcing traders to confront if the XRP army’s resolve can weather the winter chill.
XRP's Trajectory: From Euphoria to Correction
XRP’s 2025 odyssey started with fireworks. Kicking off January near $0.62 amid post-SEC victory euphoria and spot ETF launches on NYSE Arca, it rocketed to $1.96 in Q2 on SWIFT integration pilots and CBDC tie-ups with central banks in Brazil and Japan. The halving’s echo amplified flows, with on-chain remittances surging 180% YoY. But summer brought shadows: Macro tightening from Fed hikes clipped risk appetite, while Solana’s meme frenzy and Ethereum’s Dencun dividends lured liquidity away. By Q3, XRP stabilized around $2.10, flirting with all-time highs. Now, on October 21, it’s trading at $2.40 (down 3.73% in 24 hours, per Trading Economics), having erased 22% from September peaks. Market cap holds at $150.9 billion, securing #5 rank on CoinMarketCap, with 24-hour volume spiking 15% to $4.2 billion—a telltale of distressed trading over diamond hands.
JUST IN: Odds of $XRP hitting $4 or above this year have fallen to 20%, per traders on Kalshi. pic.twitter.com/TUh3DBCBim
— Whale Insider (@WhaleInsider) October 21, 2025
The Bears' and Bulls' Arguments
Kalshi’s 20% “Yes” odds aren’t whimsy; they’re the crowd’s collective wager, plunging from 48% in July as XRP’s chart mirrors the fade. The probability line in WhaleInsider’s visual echoes the price plunge from $2.85 mid-year. Bears howl about escrow unlocks flooding 1B XRP monthly, diluting upside, plus fading hype as Basel III compliance boosts traditional rails. Bulls retort with steel: Ripple’s ODL volumes hit $70B quarterly, RLUSD stablecoin beta tests shine, and XRPL’s EVM sidechain beckons DeFi migrants. With BTC dominance easing to 52%, XRP’s utility narrative could reignite—but only if macro eases.
A Pivotal Juncture for Traders
Traders face a pivotal juncture. At 20% odds, it’s a siren call for contrarians: Accumulate if you trust Ripple’s enterprise moat, but steel for volatility if yields stay sticky. XRP isn’t fading; it’s forging. In crypto’s gauntlet, $4 by December 31? Kalshi whispers “unlikely.” Yet history favors the defiant—XRP’s comebacks are legendary.