Short-Term Bearish Signals
XRP's price action is currently exhibiting bearish sentiment across six out of seven analyzed timeframes, with indicators sitting below the 21 Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This situation is fueling fears of short-term downside pressure, with potential support levels eyed around $1.90.
On December 1, 2025, XRP experienced a significant 7% plunge, reaching $2.04, its lowest point since early December. This decline occurred amidst a broader market liquidation of $600 million in cryptocurrencies. Factors contributing to this downturn include fading enthusiasm for Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), a strengthening U.S. dollar, and renewed speculation about scrutiny from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), particularly following shifts in political stances on cryptocurrency.
Amidst this market volatility, an analysis by @egragcrypto highlights a critical divergence in XRP's technical indicators. The assessment of XRP's 21 EMA across seven different timeframes reveals a dichotomy between short-term bearish trends and a dominant long-term bullish trend.
Technical Analysis and Support Levels
The prevailing technical consensus indicates that six timeframes (4-hour, 1-day, 3-day, 5-day, 1-week, and 2-week) are showing bearish signals with prices trading below the 21 EMA. This is a classic indicator of potential near-term weakness. The current price action reflects this sentiment, with XRP testing the critical support zone between $1.90 and $1.95. Egrag Crypto specifically points to the 21-month EMA, estimated at approximately $1.907, as a crucial level that could determine the immediate trajectory of the price. A monthly close below this level could trigger further declines, potentially leading to a retest of the double-bottom zone between $1.55 and $1.77.
The Dominant Monthly Bullish Trend
Despite the short-term bearish indicators, the crucial seventh timeframe – the monthly chart – remains bullish, with XRP trading above its 21 EMA. Egrag Crypto emphasizes that this long-term trend is the most significant factor and historically overrides short-term fluctuations, paving the way for substantial rallies. The analysis suggests a 65-70% probability of XRP breaking out towards the $13 mark within the next three to six months, provided that higher timeframe momentum accelerates. Egrag cautions against disregarding this higher timeframe momentum, noting that XRP's history shows instances where ignoring the monthly EMA led to missed significant gains, such as the 414% surge observed in 2021.
On-Chain Data and Macro Factors
Supporting the bullish long-term outlook are several on-chain metrics. Whale accumulation has reportedly increased by 12% week-over-week, and exchange outflows have reached their highest point in 2025. The recent launch of Ripple's stablecoin, RLUSD, with 1 billion tokens minted, signals a tangible increase in utility. Furthermore, the anticipation of a potential XRP ETF from 21Shares, with projections of $125 million in day-one inflows, creates a setup that mirrors the conditions preceding XRP's significant decoupling from Bitcoin's downturns in 2021.
Potential Risks and Conclusion
While the long-term outlook remains optimistic, potential risks persist. A significant correction in Bitcoin, potentially dropping to $80,000, could exert downward pressure on XRP, testing the $1.85 level. Regulatory uncertainties also continue to be a factor. However, Egrag Crypto's focus on the macro perspective is not based on blind optimism but on pattern recognition from historical cycles where XRP has delivered substantial returns following sustained holds above key EMAs. The message for the XRP community is to remain vigilant, acknowledge the short-term volatility, but keep a primary focus on the long-term trend towards $13. While bearish sentiment is currently vocal, historical data suggests that a broader perspective is crucial for identifying significant long-term opportunities.