XRP Swift Rally to $2.80 Becomes Inevitable Once This Happens

Exchange Reserves Decline Significantly

Crypto analyst Ripple Bull Winkle has highlighted a substantial decrease in XRP held on centralized exchanges over the past two months. Data indicates that XRP balances have fallen from approximately 3.95 billion tokens to about 2.6 billion tokens, marking a reduction of over 45 percent.

The analyst also noted that Binance's XRP reserves are approaching all-time lows, suggesting a continued tightening of available supply. This contraction is considered a critical factor that could influence near-term market behavior, especially given the speed at which tokens have been leaving exchanges.

Technical Indicators Align with On-Chain Developments

Beyond supply metrics, the analyst pointed to a developing technical formation identified as a bull pennant, complemented by a V-shaped recovery structure on the price chart. This pattern is linked to strengthening recovery momentum and coincides with ongoing accumulation by recently launched exchange-traded products.

According to his analysis, the combination of decreasing exchange supply and consistent ETF inflows creates a market environment where a move towards $2.80 is becoming a more likely outcome, aligning with current market conditions rather than being purely speculative.

Market Participants React to Supply Reduction

Other market participants have echoed the sentiment regarding supply reduction and steady absorption of XRP.

Guoyu RWA stated that the combination of falling supply and shifting sentiment often precedes increased market activity. He added that Binance's reduced reserves and ETF accumulation make the analyst's projected $2.80 target appear increasingly feasible.

CryptoGames3D also observed that the supply squeeze is evident, arguing that the consistent decline in exchange balances, coupled with ETF buying, supports the plausibility of the analyst's price target.

Broader Market Outlook and Supply Dynamics

The analyst's central argument focuses on the intersection of supply contraction and sustained institutional demand. Lower exchange reserves limit immediate sell-side liquidity. If ETFs continue their accumulation trend, the amount of XRP available on major trading platforms may continue to decrease. The technical setup is seen as reinforcing this broader narrative, suggesting that market structure is aligning with the underlying supply-demand dynamics.

Collectively, these observations emphasize a narrative of tightening supply, driven by reduced exchange balances, historically low reserves on key platforms, and ongoing ETF inflows.

Within this context, the analyst views the $2.80 price level as increasingly justified by current market data, positioning it as a logical outcome rather than an aspirational forecast. Consequently, the progression of exchange balances and institutional accumulation are highlighted as key metrics to monitor in the coming days.