XRP has demonstrated a significant rebound, gaining nearly 25% from the $2 psychological level within the past week. This upward momentum appears to be driven by substantial daily inflows into XRP-related Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), which have exceeded $164 million following the recent launches of Grayscale's GXRP and Franklin Templeton's XRPZ.
Key Price Indicators for XRP
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XRP is maintaining a bullish stance above the $2 mark, with technical indicators suggesting a potential upward trajectory towards the $3.30–$3.50 range.
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However, resistance levels identified between $2.23 and $2.50 could potentially trigger a bearish reversal, leading to a price drop towards $1.82.
Analysis Suggests Potential for a 50% Rally
On Friday, XRP successfully defended the support zone between $1.95 and $2.05, which forms part of a prevailing parallel channel. This particular price band has consistently acted as a support level since December 2024, with each instance of retesting this area resulting in significant bounces, ranging from 75% to 90%, towards the channel's upper boundary, which is currently near $3.50.
If this technical setup continues to play out as anticipated, the XRP/USD pair could experience a further increase of up to 57% before the end of the year.
Analyst Milkybull Crypto highlighted the On-Balance Volume (OBV) as a critical factor contributing to the current bullish sentiment. The OBV is a technical indicator used to gauge buying and selling pressure. An increasing OBV suggests genuine buying activity, while a decreasing OBV indicates sellers are gaining control.
Milkybull noted that the OBV for XRP experienced a bounce from a significant support area precisely when the price touched $2. This is a noteworthy observation, as it indicates the presence of genuine spot buyers entering the market rather than exiting their positions.
Historical Fractal Pattern Suggests $3.50 Target
According to analyst GalaxyBTC, XRP's current price structure bears a strong resemblance to the pattern that preceded its significant rally in 2017. In a recent post, GalaxyBTC observed that the $2 region is currently functioning similarly to the mid-range support that XRP reclaimed before its historic surge eight years ago.
XRP is presently consolidating and bouncing within a recognizable green accumulation zone, while simultaneously respecting the broader breakout structure that emerged earlier in 2025. With prices stabilizing around the $2 level and buyer interest returning, GalaxyBTC suggests that XRP has the potential to retest the upper boundary of its channel, targeting the $3.30 to $3.50 range. This projection is based on the observed expansion phase following a similar technical setup in 2017.
Potential Challenges to the Bullish Outlook
Despite the positive market sentiment, XRP faces several technical obstacles that must be overcome to confirm a sustained upward price movement. As of Tuesday, the token was encountering resistance at the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, which is situated near $2.23.
A decisive break above this $2.23 level would then bring XRP face-to-face with further significant resistance from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicated in red, and the 200-day EMA, shown in blue. These moving averages have acted as formidable caps on XRP's price attempts since the beginning of October.
These EMAs are positioned closely along the upper trendline of XRP's descending channel, a pattern that has exerted downward pressure on the price since the summer months. If this descending channel pattern remains intact, XRP could potentially retrace towards the lower boundary of the channel. Such a move could lead to a price decline towards the 0.0 Fibonacci level, which is approximately $1.82, by the end of the year.
A price movement of this nature would undermine the current bullish outlook and suggest that the recent bounce might have been a temporary phenomenon, often referred to as a "dead cat bounce."