XRP has experienced a 7.5% price drop this week, defying the historical trend of pre-conference rallies often associated with Ripple's major events. The upcoming Ripple Swell conference, scheduled for November 4-5 in New York, is poised to be a significant intersection of the cryptocurrency space with US policy and traditional finance.
Ripple's Swell Conference: A High-Profile Gathering
Ripple's Swell 2025 is set to host over 600 attendees from 40 countries, featuring prominent figures such as White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt and executives from major financial institutions including BlackRock, Nasdaq, Citi, and BNY Mellon. The conference agenda emphasizes the XRP Ledger's (XRPL) compatibility with ISO 20022 standards, highlighting its potential in tokenizing real-world assets and streamlining cross-border payments.
We’re excited to welcome @patrickjwitt from the White House's Digital Assets Council to our keynote speaker lineup at Ripple Swell 2025.
— Ripple (@Ripple) October 23, 2025
This is a conversation you can't miss.
LAST CHANCE: The deadline to request your invitation to attend is tomorrow, October 24th.
Join us in… pic.twitter.com/8n3s70tdSU
A dedicated session, "The Impact of Tokenized Financial Assets on Capital Markets," will include Maxwell Stein, Director of Digital Assets at BlackRock, alongside executives from Moody’s and CoinDesk. Furthermore, a live demonstration of stablecoin settlements on XRPL and keynotes from Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and Nasdaq's Adena Friedman are expected to underscore XRP's role in institutional liquidity and its potential for treasury management and DeFi integrations.
Historical Precedent and Current Market Sentiment
Historically, Ripple's Swell events have often triggered short-term price increases for XRP, fueled by partnership announcements and general market excitement. In 2017, prior to the San Francisco conference, XRP's price doubled from $0.20 to over $0.40 following the launch of xRapid. The 2018 Toronto event saw XRP climb by 50% leading up to the conference, partly due to announcements like MoneyGram's expansion. Similarly, in 2019, XRP gained 32% before the Singapore gathering, boosted by a keynote on global remittances. However, the 2019 event also saw a subsequent 30% correction in a classic "sell-the-news" scenario.
While the 2024 Miami Swell event resulted in modest 10% gains, potentially influenced by the ongoing SEC lawsuit, the expectation was that increased regulatory clarity in 2025, following the dismissal of the appeal, could reignite past bullish trends. Despite these expectations and the current regulatory landscape, the XRP price has remained subdued, trading below $3.
Technical Analysis: XRP Price Risks a 16% Drop
Current technical indicators for XRP suggest a bearish outlook on lower time frames. The cryptocurrency is trading at $2.49 after testing the $2.37 support level. A notable 8% decrease in trading volume over the past 24 hours indicates weakening buyer conviction.
A rounding top pattern has formed on the four-hour chart since October 22, suggesting a potential continuation of the current downtrend. The relative strength index (RSI) is positioned below the 50 mark, and the MACD has crossed below its middle line, both signaling further downside potential.
Bears are now targeting the pattern's neckline at $2.37. A confirmed candlestick close below this level on the four-hour chart could lead to a further decline, with the measured target of the rounded top pattern indicating a potential drop to $2.09, representing a 16% decrease from the current price.
Key moving averages are acting as resistance levels, with the 50-period simple moving average (SMA) at $2.55 and the 200-period SMA at $2.84. Continued rejection from the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $2.53 would further reinforce the bearish sentiment, potentially driving XRP's price down to $2.20 or lower.