Whale Activity and Technical Indicators Signal Bearish Trend
On-chain data reveals that nearly 200 million XRP was sold off over the weekend, marking a significant reduction that coincides with one of the steepest two-day declines in whale balances this quarter. Wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP have been the most active in distributing their holdings, according to Santiment data highlighted by analyst Ali Martinez.
Whales dumped nearly 200 million $XRP in just 48 hours! pic.twitter.com/4qObRnDE0X
— Ali (@ali_charts) November 16, 2025
Technical indicators currently support a bearish outlook. The MACD on the daily timeframe is positioned below its signal line, indicating waning momentum with no immediate bullish crossover in sight. Concurrently, the RSI is hovering around 41, reflecting subdued buying interest and placing XRP in a neutral-to-bearish zone rather than oversold territory. Until momentum shifts, bulls have limited influence over short-term price action.
The timing of this activity is significant. XRP has been trending downwards towards the lower boundary of its multi-month range, and the recent whale transactions exacerbate an already bearish technical environment. Analysts caution that if negative momentum persists, a retest of the $2 support level becomes increasingly probable, and a breach below this point could lead to more substantial losses.
The network has observed a notable increase in high-value on-chain transactions, with 716 transactions exceeding $1 million each recorded in a short period, the highest volume in four months. Historically, such spikes in activity have preceded significant price movements, although the ultimate direction depends on whether whales are accumulating or distributing.
While some market participants suggest this surge might indicate strategic positioning for a potential rebound, current data indicates a reduction in whale holdings rather than an expansion. Until this trend reverses, XRP's momentum appears to be favoring a downward trajectory.
Divergent Analyst Views on XRP's Future Trajectory
Not all market analysts share the same bearish interpretation of the current situation. Commentator EGRAG CRYPTO has questioned the widespread dismissal of a particular Elliott Wave count, asserting that XRP is still in the process of forming a valid Wave 4 corrective phase. According to this analysis, only a sustained close above Wave B is required to initiate the Wave 5 impulse rally.
#XRP – Rejecting Facts 🤔: WHY?
Honest and sincere question…
▫️Why are so many TA analysts rejecting this wave count, especially Wave 4?▫️Wave 4 can absolutely be irregular or expanded corrective, and in this structure we clearly need a close above Wave B to launch the 5th… pic.twitter.com/82esPLcvUa
— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) November 15, 2025
This analyst proposes that the current structure is being overlooked not due to technical invalidation, but because it challenges prevailing market sentiment.
XRP at a Critical Juncture
With whales actively altering supply distribution and significant disagreements among analysts regarding XRP's future path, the cryptocurrency is approaching a critical juncture. Whether XRP will break below the $2 mark or initiate a new major upward trend may largely depend on whether whales continue to sell their holdings or abruptly shift to accumulation.