XRP Has Historically Bounced Hard When This Spikes. It’s Happening Again

XRP has been trading within a narrow range for the past few days, despite the recent launch of the XRPC spot ETF. Many observers had anticipated this development to provide a more significant boost to the asset's price. However, the price has remained relatively stagnant, prompting market participants to seek indicators that might predict future movements.

A recent analysis shared by prominent market analyst Steph Is Crypto (@Steph_iscrypto) introduced a new perspective by drawing attention to a metric that often becomes a focal point during periods of market uncertainty.

The analyst shared a chart illustrating the Relative Unrealized Loss on a seven-day moving average. He commented that "when unrealized losses spike, $XRP has historically bounced hard."

Understanding The Indicator's Signal

The Relative Unrealized Loss metric quantifies the percentage of the total supply that is currently being held at a cost basis lower than the current market price. An increase in this metric signifies that a greater proportion of holders are experiencing paper losses. Historically, XRP has seen instances where this metric surged briefly before experiencing a price reversal.

The provided chart indicates that XRP experienced a substantial 500% surge between November 2024 and January 2025 when this indicator was at elevated levels. Another short-lived spike in the middle of the year preceded XRP reaching its all-time high. Current data suggests that the value is once again rising rapidly.

This recent trend is particularly noteworthy because it follows the record-breaking launch of the XRPC ETF. While the ETF generated significant interest, it did not immediately result in the pronounced volatility that some investors had anticipated. Instead, the price remained stable while the unrealized loss metric climbed.

This divergence suggests that the current market conditions might differ from previous periods where excitement did not translate into sustained upward price movement. Steph Is Crypto's analysis posits that this scenario is constructive, as past surges in unrealized losses have frequently coincided with rapid price rallies for XRP.

Significance of This Development for XRP

The current timing supports the perspective that XRP might be entering an early phase of a new market cycle. If investors react to the recent spike in unrealized losses in a manner consistent with past behavior, it could lead to renewed demand for the asset. XRP's current subdued performance might be interpreted as temporary consolidation rather than a fundamental shift in its trajectory.

The introduction of the XRPC ETF continues to hold considerable significance, especially considering that new financial products often require time to impact liquidity and market behavior. The surge in the Relative Unrealized Loss metric indicates that investors are navigating short-term market uncertainties while maintaining their long-term interest in XRP. Should historical patterns continue to hold true, the conditions highlighted by Steph Is Crypto could indeed usher in a positive price movement.