Key Takeaways
- •XRP trades near $2.28 as long-term indicators point to a possible new bearish phase.
- •The token’s drop below its 50-week moving average signals weakening momentum.
- •Whale transfers exceeding 190 million XRP suggest mounting selling pressure.
- •Ripple’s $500 million funding round highlights corporate strength despite market uncertainty.
Market analysts now caution that XRP’s long-term structure could be signaling the start of a new bearish phase, echoing technical patterns not seen since 2021. According to TradingShot’s latest analysis shared on TradingView, XRP’s broader price structure is breaking down after five years of consistent movement inside a long-term ascending channel that began following the March 2020 market crash. The report suggests that recent market behavior could mark a shift in macro sentiment for the token.
Key Technical Breakdown Hints at Macro Shift
The analysis identifies several critical signs of weakness. Most notably, XRP has fallen below its 50-week moving average (MA) — a historically significant trend line that often dictates whether an asset remains in a bullish or bearish market phase.
In October, a sharp dip briefly tested the 100-week MA, followed by a short-lived rebound that quickly lost steam. This pattern mirrors earlier bear cycle setups, where a break under long-term MAs preceded months of downward consolidation.
Another key element is the Fibonacci structure. XRP’s all-time high from July 2025 aligned perfectly with the 2.5 Fibonacci extension, mirroring the April 2021 peak — a level that previously marked the end of its prior bull run. Combined with a weakening weekly RSI, which now trends downward after hovering near 40, analysts interpret this as a warning that momentum could continue to fade.
Possible Price Targets Ahead
Based on historical retracements, TradingShot outlines a potential path toward the $0.90 region, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and the monthly MA100. That level could represent a technical base before any sustained recovery attempt.
Short-term traders, however, may see renewed opportunities if the weekly RSI drops below 30, indicating potential oversold conditions. Until then, the bias remains bearish across most long-term indicators.
Whale Activity Adds to Selling Pressure
Adding fuel to the negative sentiment, blockchain data shows that large holders have been moving significant amounts of XRP. Whale Alert tracked over 190 million XRP, valued at approximately $448 million, transferred between Gemini and unidentified wallets in the past 24 hours. Such movements often precede liquidity reshuffling or large-scale selloffs, amplifying volatility and uncertainty in the near term.
Ripple’s Corporate Momentum Offers a Counterweight
Interestingly, Ripple’s business activity remains strong despite the market pressure. The company recently disclosed a $500 million strategic investment round valuing it at $40 billion, involving major institutional players such as Citadel, Fortress Investment Group, and Pantera Capital. This move follows a record financial year for Ripple, during which it executed a $1 billion share repurchase program, reclaiming over 25% of its equity.
While these developments highlight corporate strength, analysts note that Ripple’s business performance doesn’t always translate directly into short-term token price resilience.
Outlook
For now, XRP traders face a mixed landscape. The short-term charts suggest stabilization, but the technical picture on higher timeframes remains dominated by bearish signals. Unless buyers reclaim the 50-week MA and push the RSI above 50, analysts warn that XRP could continue drifting toward lower Fibonacci support zones before finding a long-term bottom.