XRP could still face a deep corrective phase even as its broader bull structure remains intact, according to crypto analyst Egrag Crypto. He outlined what he described as a “nightmare scenario,” framing it as a stress test rather than a shift to a bearish outlook. The analysis focuses on historical cycle behavior visible on the chart, where similar structural positions preceded sharp but temporary drawdowns before the broader trend resumed.
Historical Fractals Point to Deeper Pullbacks
EGRAG highlighted recurring patterns across previous XRP cycles, marked by white circles on the long-term chart. In each instance, price experienced significant retracements despite remaining within a larger bullish framework. Based on those historical analogs, the analyst noted that XRP could still see drawdowns of approximately 31% or 47% from current levels if the market follows a comparable path. Applied to today’s structure, that would place XRP in a potential downside zone between $1.40 and $1.20. He described this range as the point of “maximum fear,” emphasizing that it represents the most uncomfortable scenario for holders rather than a breakdown of the long-term trend.
Conviction Remains Despite the Bear Case
While acknowledging the downside risk, EGRAG was explicit that the assessment does not reflect a bearish stance on XRP’s fundamentals or macro structure. He stated that nothing in the long-term data suggests the bull cycle has ended, characterizing the current phase as prolonged and exhausting rather than complete. According to the analysis, the bearish case exists only as a function of imposed fractals and historical behavior, not weakening network structure or deteriorating fundamentals. EGRAG stressed that negative sentiment is driven more by perception than by underlying data.
Strategy if the Worst Case Plays Out
EGRAG also laid out how he would respond if XRP were to reach the $1.40–$1.20 zone. Rather than exiting, he said he would use such a move as an opportunity to significantly increase his position, provided he remains liquid at the time. He reiterated his belief that the broader macro trajectory still points toward double-digit XRP prices over the longer term. From his perspective, a deep pullback would represent conviction-driven accumulation rather than a signal to abandon the trend.
The takeaway from the analysis is clear: while XRP may still face a sharp corrective phase consistent with past cycles, EGRAG views such a move as part of a broader bullish structure, not its conclusion.