What to Know:
- •Futures open interest dropped to approximately $8.85 billion after briefly surpassing $9 billion, with over $11 million in long positions liquidated compared to $2.4 million in shorts in a single day.
- •Large holders distributed roughly 440 million XRP tokens over 30 days while more than 320 million tokens moved to centralized exchanges in the past week, pushing reserves to nine‑month highs.
- •Technical indicators show a descending triangle pattern with critical support at $2.68, where a weekly close below could trigger a decline toward $2.22, while resistance at $3.15 must break to invalidate bearish momentum.
Derivatives Activity Shows Waning Momentum
XRP traded between $2.80 and $2.83 after failing to hold above the $3.00 mark multiple times in recent sessions. The futures market reflected diminished enthusiasm as open interest contracted to around $8.85 billion from peaks above $9 billion.
Liquidation patterns revealed the strain on leveraged buyers. Long positions worth over $11 million were liquidated in a 24‑hour period, dwarfing the $2.4 million in short liquidations during the same timeframe.
The Relative Strength Index hovered in the high‑30s to low‑40s range on shorter timeframes while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator turned negative, suggesting consolidation or additional downside without renewed spot buying demand.
On‑chain data pointed to defensive positioning among holders.
Exchange inflows exceeded 320 million XRP over the past week, driving reserves on centralized platforms to their highest levels in nine months. Such movements typically precede selling activity as holders prepare to exit positions.
Whale cohorts holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP distributed approximately 440 million tokens over a 30‑day window. This added supply to a market already showing signs of weakness. BNB overtook XRP for the third‑largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization amid record activity on BNB Chain, while uncertainty surrounding approval timelines for U.S. spot exchange‑traded funds left XRP without clear near‑term catalysts.
Critical Price Levels Define Next Direction
The token formed a descending triangle pattern on charts, placing support at $2.68 to $2.70 as the pivotal zone. Experienced traders noted that a weekly close beneath $2.687 could trigger a measured move toward $2.22, representing roughly a 20 percent decline from current levels.
Immediate resistance appeared at $2.92 to $3.00. A sustained break above that range would bring $3.15 into focus as the threshold needed to invalidate the bearish setup. Clearing $3.15 could shift price targets to a range between $3.60 and $4.50, according to pattern‑based projections.
Market participants identified several factors to monitor in the near term. Spot‑driven buying and declining funding rates on any upward moves would indicate healthier demand than leverage‑fueled rallies. A reversal in exchange reserve trends would reduce immediate selling pressure. Open interest rebuilding without excessive concentration in long positions could support a more sustainable recovery.
The combination of declining futures activity and whale distribution kept risk tilted toward further losses as long as XRP remained below $3.00.
Bulls required a high‑volume reclamation of the $3.00 to $3.15 range to shift momentum. Without that development, a retest of $2.70 support and potentially the $2.22 level on a breakdown remained the more probable scenario.
Closing Thoughts
XRP faces headwinds from both derivatives markets and on‑chain flows as large holders reduce positions and exchange reserves climb. The technical setup favors additional downside or prolonged consolidation unless buying demand returns at current levels or the cryptocurrency breaks decisively above resistance at $3.15.