Key Takeaways
- •Bitcoin is on track for one of its worst October performances since 2013.
- •Previous bull market years saw Bitcoin achieve a minimum of 40% gains in October.
- •The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting may offer a potential reprieve for the market.
Bearish October Performance
Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing a challenging "Uptober," with the price threatening to mark the first "red" October since 2018. Data from CoinGlass indicates that at current prices, BTC/USD is 2.3% below its monthly starting level.
October 2025 has so far been a disappointment for Bitcoin bulls. An initial surge to new all-time highs was followed by a significant liquidation event. Currently trading within a narrow range between approximately $107,000 and $111,500, the BTC price needs substantial gains before the monthly candle closes to avoid a negative outcome.
CoinGlass data highlights the market's current position relative to historical averages. The average upside for Bitcoin in October since 2013 has been 20%, which would have placed the price above $130,000.
Conversely, BTC/USD only needs to decline by 4% from its current level to record its worst October performance in 12 years.
THIS IS THE WORST UPTOBER EVER.
— Rekt Fencer (@rektfencer) October 23, 2025
The only worse one was 2014 (-13%).
2013: +60%
2017: +50%
2021: +40%
2025: -4%
Bad Uptober usually means one thing: MOONVEMBER. pic.twitter.com/6BMrNp4afD
The performance is particularly concerning for a bull market year. In 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin experienced gains of at least 40% in October. The weakest tenth month of the year historically was 2014, which saw a downside of 13%.
Potential for "Uptober" Reclaim
Fresh data from network economist Timothy Peterson provides further perspective on 2025's BTC price action compared to previous bull markets. Charts uploaded to X this week illustrate that the current bull market is not performing as favorably for bulls as prior cycles.
However, at the beginning of the month, Peterson noted that a significant portion of "Uptober's" gains typically occur in the latter half of the month. He previously stated in research from September that "60% of Bitcoin's full-year performance occurs after October 3rd."
News that the U.S. Federal Reserve might signal the end of quantitative tightening (QT) at its October 29 meeting could provide a "huge signal" for markets, according to Peterson. As previously reported, expectations are that the Fed will lower interest rates, even without conclusive inflation data, potentially creating more favorable conditions for cryptocurrencies and other risk assets moving forward.