Ethereum’s native token, Ether, continues to experience a significant downturn, declining approximately 30% over the past three months. The recent price action has raised concerns among investors regarding the extent of further declines before year’s end, especially amid technical signals suggesting both bearish and bullish possibilities.
Key Takeaways
- •Ethereum could fall toward the $2,500–$2,200 range if the Market-Value-to-Realized-Value (MVRV) support levels and pennant breakout fail.
- •However, a bullish breakout from the current falling wedge pattern could lead to a rally targeting $3,550.
- •Support levels around $2,820–$2,830 are critical, as evidenced by recent retests of the −0.5σ MVRV deviation band.
- •A potential breakdown below key support might see ETH gravitating towards the realized price near $2,500, historically a strong downside magnet during corrections.
Ethereum’s Current Technical Outlook
Ether’s recent price action has been marked by a retest of the −0.5σ MVRV deviation band (support level), hovering near $2,820–$2,830, according to Glassnode data. The MVRV indicator compares market price with the last price at which investors moved their coins, often highlighting crucial support and resistance zones. Historically, the −0.5σ band has served as essential mid-cycle support during downtrends.
In March, a decisive close below this band foreshadowed a 40% decline, with the price gravitating toward the realized price (around $2,500). A sustained breakdown below current support could once again shift focus toward this key level, which has previously acted as an attractor for price corrections during volatile periods.
Bearish Pattern and Potential for Further Decline
The daily chart reveals Ethereum’s price compressing into a bearish pennant – a chart formation that typically signifies continuation of a prior downtrend. A confirmed breakdown from this pattern could trigger a decline toward the $2,200–$2,220 area, roughly 20% below current levels. This zone aligns with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally and a demand cluster from April.
Furthermore, the formation of a falling wedge pattern intensifies the outlook for a possible bottom around this support zone, as falling wedges often culminate in bullish breakouts. If the price breaches the wedge’s upper trendline, however, it could open pathways toward a rally up to $3,550, aligning with analyst projections for a bullish momentum heading into the new year.
Recent valuation models suggest Ethereum remains undervalued, with some forecasts indicating potential prices above $4,000, contingent on favorable technical development and broader market momentum. The upcoming weeks will be critical in determining whether Ethereum sustains its bearish momentum or prepares for a significant reversal.