Market Overview and Key Insights
Analysts are highlighting key support levels for XRP's price, with some analyses suggesting a potential drop into sub-$1 territory. Despite these concerns, the broader cryptocurrency market, led by Bitcoin, is exhibiting bullish conditions. Institutional movements are currently providing clearer signals than whale activity.
At press time, XRP was trading around $2.6, marking an increase of over 2.7% both intraday and over the past week. These positive weekly and daily changes indicate potential consolidation pathways ahead. Over the last 12 months, XRP has seen a significant surge of more than 400%.
Trading volume experienced a robust intraday uptick of over 21%, surpassing the $4.4 billion mark. The overall market sentiment also appeared favorable.
Fundamental factors supporting XRP include Ripple's recent acquisition of Hidden Road and the growing excitement surrounding potential XRP ETFs, both contributing to a positive outlook for the token and its underlying blockchain technology.
Uncertainty in the market has relatively decreased compared to earlier in the month. Polymarket's prediction for an interest rate cut on October 29th stands at a 98% certainty, further solidified by recent inflation data that supports such a move. Additionally, the anticipated Trump-Xi meeting is currently proceeding as planned.
Bitcoin (BTC) has risen over 4% both intraday and weekly. Ethereum (ETH) also saw an upward trend of +4.5%, and the TOTAL3 chart, representing the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, has registered its fifth consecutive green daily candle. The Altseason index, according to blockchaincenter.com, is at 43, showing stabilization after a recent decline.
XRP Price Analysis: The Case For a Sub-$1 Crash
Amidst this period of relative market calm, one market analyst has outlined a "Doomsday Scenario" that warrants investor attention.
EGRAG CRYPTO, in a post on X, presented a projection of a potential XRP crash to $0.5 in the event of a bear market. According to EGRAG's analysis of the 3-month XRP price chart, a hammer or hanging-man candle has historically appeared just before bear markets.
These candle formations, whether green or red, have been followed by significant price drops ranging from 78% to 85%.
Applying these historical percentage drops as forecasting guidelines, EGRAG noted that if XRP were to reach $3.65, it could potentially face a subsequent drop to the $0.5 mark. This projected price of $3.65 is approximately 40% higher than XRP's press time price.
While the analyst termed the potential drop to $0.5 a "Doomsday scenario," the X post also served as a strong encouragement for investors to hold their positions (HODL). EGRAG CRYPTO emphasized that this is "not a swing trade, not a hype trade, not a short-term play" and stated that if XRP were to fall below $1, he would "buy harder."
The current XRP price chart reflects stability and consolidation, lacking explicit directional signals. XRP is testing its press time price zone of $2.6. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading is at 55, indicating a nearly neutral stance.
Ali Martinez, a frequent commentator on Crypto X, has identified support and resistance levels for XRP. According to Ali, XRP's support should be pegged at $2.15, while resistance is expected at the $2.8 mark.
It is worth noting that EGRAG had previously indicated that if XRP could secure and rally from the $2.5 mark, it would be positioned to surge past $3. At that time, XRP was struggling to decisively break above the $2.5 level. Based on the current price action, it may be premature to definitively conclude that XRP has stabilized in the $2.5 zone.
Whale Activity Or Company Updates – Which To Consider?
STEPH IS CRYPTO, another active participant on Crypto X, noted that a Ripple whale initiated a long position earlier today, with the position valued at $8.6 million at the $2.6 price level. This contrasts with a report from last Saturday, which indicated that XRP whales had dumped over 70 million coins.
Open Interest (OI) data from CoinGlass shows a marginal drop today, standing at $4.32 billion, which is close to levels observed in June.
Over the past week, changes in Open Interest have remained within a relatively narrow range, suggesting stability. However, current OI levels are still significantly below those recorded before October 10th.
As of now, whale data alone may not provide definitive signals for price forecasting. Therefore, it is essential to consider a multitude of factors when assessing potential price movements.
In parallel, recent price action over the past few days can be partly attributed to the latest WazirX update, among other developments. WazirX, an asset trading exchange with a substantial user base in India, has resumed operations following a significant cyberattack. The exchange has announced that trading will be reintroduced in phases. This resumption of services is expected to have a positive impact on XRP's trading volume.
Ripple announced on October 24th its acquisition of Hidden Road, which has been subsequently rebranded as "Ripple Prime." Hidden Road operates as a non-bank Prime Broker. In its official press release, Ripple stated that since the acquisition, Ripple Prime's business has experienced threefold growth.
EGRAG's price analysis is based on historical price action and does not incorporate upcoming news updates. It is important to remember that the analyst explicitly labeled his projection as a "Doomsday Scenario."
Given that current price action and derivatives market data suggest positive and stable movement, the influence of geopolitical and macroeconomic shocks is currently heightened.
Furthermore, a new Federal Reserve chair is expected to be announced soon, as Bessent has recently released the list of candidates for the position.
At present, investors are likely to remain vigilant for geopolitical developments and global macroeconomic data releases.