Instead of watching candles, market veterans are paying attention to where long-term holders entered — because cycles rarely break when most committed investors are still in profit.
That is where the $94,000 zone comes in. According to blockchain data models referenced by CryptoQuant CEO Ki-young Ju, the average cost basis of buyers from six to twelve months ago clusters around that level. If those wallets stay above break-even, the group that absorbed the bulk of supply during the previous accumulation phase has no incentive to sell. If those wallets go underwater, history shows they eventually do.
Those who entered Bitcoin 6 to 12 months ago have a cost basis near 94K.
Personally, I do not think the bear cycle is confirmed unless we lose that level. I would rather wait than jump to conclusions. pic.twitter.com/i9a5M0xnMW
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) November 14, 2025
A Correction Doesn’t Become a Bear Market Just Because It Feels Like One
This distinction matters right now because macro uncertainty — including the record 43-day US government shutdown and shifting expectations for Fed policy — has sent risk assets sliding and fueled panic in crypto. The price action is uncomfortable, but discomfort is not the definition of a trend reversal.
For a real breakdown to happen, long-term holders need to be pressured into liquidation. That pressure doesn’t come from headlines; it comes from their entry price flipping from support to resistance.
The Real Signal Hasn’t Triggered Yet
Bitcoin has already crossed below psychological levels like $100,000. Those headlines move sentiment — but they don’t decide the cycle. The deeper pivot will arrive only if the $94,000 cost-basis floor gives way. Until then, the majority of committed buyers are still sitting on gains, not losses.
Ju’s stance is neither bullish nor bearish. It is procedural: the market has one clean invalidation point. If $94,000 holds, the cycle structure remains intact. If it breaks convincingly, then the door opens to a true bear market.
The irony is that many traders are desperate to predict the next phase, when the smarter play might be to observe whether the level holds or fails.
Right now, the market doesn’t need opinions — it needs confirmation.