Can holding a promising crypto like Kaspa really make you poorer instead of richer? That’s the question the YouTube channel Crypto Mindset, with over 36 thousand subscribers, recently tackled, and their answer was blunt. According to the host, keeping KAS in your portfolio until 2026 could be a costly mistake.
Crypto Mindset began by pointing to one simple signal on the charts: the RSI (Relative Strength Index). On the weekly timeframe, Kaspa’s RSI reportedly dropped below 50 in December 2024. That, according to the analyst, was the exact moment the market turned bearish.
He explained that whenever RSI stays above 52, Kaspa price tends to perform well, forming higher highs and staying in a bull run. The drop below that line, combined with a fall under the 50-week moving average, was seen as the start of a long downward trend.
In his words, that was the “sell signal” that many ignored. From there, Kaspa price began to fall sharply, losing over 90% of its value. The analyst warned that this could only be the beginning of a deeper correction.
Comparing Kaspa to Bitcoin’s 2014 Cycle
To make his point clearer, Crypto Mindset compared Kaspa to Bitcoin’s historical price movement. Back in 2014, Bitcoin rallied over 500x before entering a brutal two-year bear market that wiped out nearly all speculative gains.
Kaspa, he noted, had a similar story — only with an even bigger multiplier. The coin surged around 1,000x from its early days, creating an overheated market that now looks ready for a long cooldown.
If that pattern repeats, the analyst believes KAS price could sink to around $0.001 or even lower. He argued that it’s common for assets with such huge rallies to retrace up to 99% before finding a stable bottom.
What Could Happen Between Now and 2026
According to Crypto Mindset, Kaspa might stay in a bearish phase for quite some time. Since the RSI broke down in late 2024, the analyst expects this weakness to last at least through 2025.
He said the chart currently shows no signs of recovery, with lower highs and lower lows continuing on both weekly and monthly indicators. Until that pattern changes, he believes there’s a “high risk of more downside.”
The video even suggested that a Bitcoin correction could make things worse. Historically, when Bitcoin enters a bear market, most altcoins fall even harder. If Bitcoin tops out soon, Kaspa price could, in his view, “get completely cooked.”
When the Analyst Thinks Kaspa Could Recover
Crypto Mindset did not dismiss Kaspa entirely. In fact, he said there might be a time when KAS becomes a great buy again — just not now.
He pointed to Bitcoin’s 2015–2016 accumulation phase as an example. After crashing, Bitcoin moved sideways for nearly two years before breaking out again. He expects Kaspa to follow a similar path, possibly finding a bottom sometime in mid to late 2026.
At that point, he suggested investors could look for signs of sideways consolidation or a breakout as an early signal of a new bull phase. Until then, his view is that holding Kaspa will only “trap” investors during the worst part of the bear market.
Crypto Mindset’s message was not about hating Kaspa, but about timing. The analyst believes the next big move will come only after the pain phase is over. For now, he argues, protecting capital matters more than holding through deep red months.