Analysis of Asset Performance in 2025
BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom chief investment officer Arthur Hayes has presented an analysis arguing that Bitcoin performed as anticipated in 2025. He posits that Bitcoin's trajectory mirrored the decline in dollar liquidity during that year. In contrast, gold and technology stocks exhibited different behaviors, influenced by central bank purchases and U.S. government policies related to artificial intelligence.
In a blog post published on his Substack, Hayes outlined a framework to understand why Bitcoin lagged behind gold and the Nasdaq 100 during the initial year of President Donald Trump's second term. Hayes, who established BitMEX in 2014 and now manages the family office investment fund Maelstrom, attributed gold's significant price increase to central banks acquiring the asset without strict regard for price. This trend reportedly accelerated following the U.S. government's decision to freeze Russian treasury holdings in 2022.
He pointed to data indicating that gold exports constituted more than 100% of the improvement observed in America's trade deficit during December 2025.
Hayes further argued that the Nasdaq's ability to maintain its position was a result of what he characterized as a de facto nationalization of AI-related industries. He elaborated that Trump's economic agenda prioritizes AI dominance as critical to U.S. interests, thereby directing capital into the sector irrespective of conventional return-on-equity measures.
Outlook for Dollar Liquidity in 2026
Hayes anticipates that dollar liquidity will experience substantial growth in 2026, driven by three primary factors. These include the expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet through Reserve Management Purchases, an increase in lending from commercial banks to strategic industries, and reductions in mortgage rates.
He observed that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reached its lowest point in December, coinciding with the conclusion of quantitative tightening. Reserve Management Purchases have since been adding a minimum of $40 billion monthly to the balance sheet.
The growth of commercial bank loans, as measured by the Fed's Other Deposits and Liabilities metric, began to accelerate in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Hayes disclosed that the Maelstrom fund entered 2026 with a near-maximum exposure to risk. He detailed his strategy of adding long positions in Strategy and Metaplanet to achieve leveraged exposure to Bitcoin. Additionally, he revealed the continued accumulation of Zcash, viewing recent developer departures from the Electric Coin Company as a strategic buying opportunity rather than a negative indicator.