Bitcoin faces widespread speculation about a potential plunge to $35,000 by December 2026. Technical analysts are pushing back hard against this bearish narrative with compelling data that suggests the floor sits much higher.
The cryptocurrency currently trades around $86,000, down from its recent peak above $126,000. This 31% correction has sparked intense debate about how low Bitcoin could actually fall in this cycle.
Historical Patterns Point to Higher Support
According to PhilakoneCrypto on X, bear markets follow predictable timelines. "All bear markets have lasted roughly 365 days exactly from the top to the very bottom in 2014, 2018, and 2022," the analyst noted. Historical drawdowns ranged between 78% and 86% from peak values.
However, Sykodelic told his 62,000 X followers that predictions of a Bitcoin crash to $35,000 represent "absolute rubbish." The analyst emphasized a critical factor: retracements require corresponding expansion phases.
"For Bitcoin to retrace 75% it actually has to fully expand, and this cycle, it just did not do that," Sykodelic explained on X. The monthly Relative Strength Index barely touched overbought territory for the first time in history. Previous cycles pushed deep into oversold bands during expansion phases.
The 2017 cycle saw Bitcoin surge 160x before its eventual correction. Yet even that massive rally never breached the lower monthly Bollinger Band during the subsequent bear market. This cycle's expansion proved far weaker by comparison.
Bollinger Bands currently place the lower support level at $55,000. Bitcoin has never broken below this technical indicator on monthly timeframes throughout its entire history. The mid-level band where price currently hovers mirrors the 2019 setup precisely.
"Basically, absolute worst case scenario and if this is a big bad bear... if we close this monthly candle below the mid line then we could be expecting a maximum bottom of $55k," Sykodelic stated on X.
Liquidity Shift Creates Bullish Setup
The Federal Reserve's recent policy change adds another layer to the Bitcoin bull case. CryptosR_Us highlighted on X that quantitative tightening just ended, calling it "THE BIG CATALYST."
Tom Lee noted the significance of this monetary policy shift. The Fed stopped its largest liquidity drain since 2022. When QT ended previously, markets rallied 17% within three weeks.
Bitcoin operates as a liquidity-sensitive asset. The end of Fed tightening typically triggers capital flows into risk assets before broader market participants recognize the shift.
Eljaboom pointed out on X that liquidity models currently price Bitcoin at nearly $200,000 while spot trades above $80,000. "The last time Bitcoin traded this far below fair value was during COVID panic, the FTX meltdown, and the 2018 capitulation bottom," the analyst wrote.
This valuation gap suggests significant underpricing relative to available market liquidity. Each historical instance of similar divergence preceded substantial price recoveries.
Expert Consensus Builds Around $55K Floor
Jeff Ko, Chief Analyst at CoinEx exchange, disputed even the $55,000 bottom scenario. He argued that the traditional four-year cycle structure is breaking down as Bitcoin becomes increasingly institutionalized.
"I do not expect another 70%–80% drawdown from all-time highs," Ko stated. Market depth, ETF participation, and a broader investor base suggest future corrections will prove shallower and more orderly compared to previous cycles.
His bear-case scenario places Bitcoin revisiting the $65,000 to $68,000 range rather than testing lower support levels.
Augustine Fan, head of insights at SignalPlus, outlined a more cautious view contingent on support zones. He identified the $72,000 to $75,000 range as critical support. A breakdown below this area could trigger cascading liquidations with unknown consequences for leveraged positions.