Key Market Indicators
- •Dormant wallets are becoming active, with holders moving over 1,000 BTC per hour in 2025.
- •A significant whale transfer involved 3,600 BTC, with a portion sent to the Kraken exchange.
- •Technical analysis suggests a bearish chart setup, with Bitcoin risking a 10-12% correction if key support levels fail.
Resurgence of Old Bitcoin Holdings
Data from 2025 indicates that long-term Bitcoin holders have begun moving or selling substantial amounts of their holdings, reigniting concerns about a potential market downturn. On-chain data, as shared by Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments, highlights the activity of dormant wallets, some of which have remained inactive for nearly a decade. These addresses are now offloading more than 1,000 BTC per hour, with transaction volumes occasionally exceeding $100 million to $500 million. Edwards characterized this period as one of the most intense distributions of old Bitcoin coins in the cryptocurrency's history.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading approximately 19% below its October peak of $126,000. Market participants are divided on the reasons behind this weakness. Some interpret it as a natural cooling-off period following a record-breaking rally, while others perceive it as a structural unwind driven by early investors taking profits.
Notable Whale Movements and Interpretations
One prominent instance involved a whale, identified by Lookonchain as “Owen Gunden,” transferring 3,600 BTC, valued at around $372 million. This included a 500 BTC transfer to Kraken, fueling speculation of a direct sell-off. However, not all analysts are convinced that these movements are purely bearish. Analyst Willy Woo suggests that some of these transactions might be related to custody migrations, Taproot upgrades, or preparations for institutional storage, rather than outright selling.
Technical Analysis and Support Levels
From a technical perspective, chart indicators are not currently signaling strong confidence. Analysts have observed Bitcoin forming a bear pennant pattern, which often precedes further price declines. A decisive break below the $100,650 support level could lead to a significant drop towards the $89,000–$90,000 range, unless the price manages to remain above the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is currently situated near $101,000.