Key points:
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Bitcoin faces three moving averages in the same place on the daily chart after its early-week gains.
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The monthly and quarterly close make reclaiming these all the more important, analysis suggests.
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Multiple catalysts for BTC price volatility are lining up this week.
Bitcoin (BTC) is battling three “key” moving averages at once — and the bull run may depend on beating them.
New analysis released Monday from Keith Alan, co‑founder of trading resource Material Indicators, tells traders to watch the next daily closes.
Bitcoin bulls attempt three support flips
Bitcoin may have delivered an impressive bounce from near $109,000 to start the week, but bulls are not safe yet.
Discussing the current market structure, Alan points to a cluster of simple moving averages (SMAs) that have merged into a small area.
The 21‑day, 50‑day and 100‑day SMAs are now all in the same place — and that just happens to be where spot price is now acting.
“They’re all really closely wound right now,” he said during a video update uploaded to X.
At the time of writing, as confirmed by data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, BTC/USD traded immediately above the 50SMA but below the other two, having closed above all three trend lines on Monday.
“It’s not how you start the day, it’s not even what’s happening in the middle of the day; it’s how you finish,” Alan continued.
He told viewers to monitor whether the SMAs are flipped to support next, calling this a “key thing to watch.”
A potentially volatile monthly close
With BTC/USD thus in a state of flux, volatility catalysts are as crucial as ever.
Related: Bitcoin traders see $110K CME gap dip next as BTC price gains 1.5%
As Cointelegraph reported, a raft of US macroeconomic data is due throughout the week, with almost all of it pertaining to employment.
Labor market weakness is a central theme for policymakers, as the Federal Reserve chooses the path ahead for interest‑rate cuts.
The impending risk of a US government shutdown, slated to begin Oct. 1, adds another layer of uncertainty when it comes to short‑term risk‑asset performance.
To top it all off, the monthly and quarterly candle close are about to hit.
“A Daily candle close above the 21‑Day SMA would be a sign of strength, but only if it holds through the Monthly open,” Alan added on the topic.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.