Veteran trader Peter Brandt believes Bitcoin’s path to $200,000 will take considerably longer than many crypto executives anticipate. In an X post published Thursday, Brandt stated he does not expect Bitcoin to reach the $200K milestone by the end of this year or in the immediate future. Instead, he projects that the next major bull market will lift Bitcoin to approximately $200,000 in Q3 2029.
Brandt emphasized his stance as a “long-term bull on Bitcoin,” but cautioned that expectations of rapid gains are not realistic. His projection contrasts sharply with bullish forecasts from prominent industry figures such as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and BitMine chair Tom Lee, both of whom reaffirmed in October their conviction that Bitcoin would surpass $200,000 before the year concluded.
The trader's long-term outlook also significantly diverges from estimates provided by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood, who have both projected Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030. Brandt anticipates Bitcoin will be substantially lower—roughly one-fifth of that price—just a quarter earlier than their 2030 target.
Bitcoin's Recent Market Performance
Bitcoin has experienced challenges since achieving a new all-time high of $125,100 on October 5th, facing a steady decline amidst broader market pressures. On Wednesday, Bitcoin dropped to $88,000. Despite a brief recovery, the price continued to correct, trading near $86,870 at the time of publication.
Notwithstanding the downturn, Brandt views the ongoing market reset as a constructive development rather than a detrimental one. He wrote, “This dumping is the best thing that could happen to Bitcoin.” Analysts throughout the sector have echoed this sentiment, noting that historical market shakeouts often precede periods of strong upside momentum.
Historical Parallels and Institutional Influence
Brandt has previously drawn parallels between Bitcoin's current chart structure and the 1970s soybean market, which saw a significant decline following a major peak. He pointed out how soybeans fell 50 percent once global supply outstripped demand, cautioning that similar dynamics could emerge in overheated cryptocurrency markets.
Meanwhile, institutional activity continues to exert a substantial influence on Bitcoin’s price movements. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, observed that Bitcoin has “never seen this much institutional selling as a percentage of Coinbase volume in all history,” highlighting a notable shift in market behavior.
Long-Term Outlook Amidst Volatility
Even with increasing pessimism among some investors, long-term analysts maintain that structural resets are essential for sustainable upward trends. Brandt’s timeline suggests that while short-term volatility may persist, Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory remains firmly on an upward path, albeit at a slower pace than the most aggressive industry predictions.