Veteran trader Peter Brandt has presented a cautious forecast for the cryptocurrency market, predicting that Bitcoin will only reach $200,000 in the third quarter of 2029. This prediction stands in contrast to more optimistic projections from other prominent figures in the industry who anticipate a faster and steeper bull cycle.
Brandt, while remaining a long-term bull on Bitcoin, believes that the market is currently undergoing a necessary phase to clear out excesses, reset expectations, and establish a foundation for sustained growth. He views the recent price correction as a healthy development for new accumulation.
Brandt's Forecast Contrasts With Industry Expectations
Bitcoin's price has recently experienced a significant decline, falling from its all-time high of $125,100 on October 5 to approximately $80,000. This represents a drop of over 20% within a thirty-day period, leaving Bitcoin 34.61% below its all-time high.
Historical Cycle Comparisons and Technical Patterns
Brandt interprets this downturn as a beneficial stage that eliminates weak leverage and prepares the market for new accumulation levels. His analysis is informed by historical cycle comparisons, notably drawing parallels with the soybean market in the 1970s. In that instance, rapid price increases were not supported by demand, leading to a significant correction of over 50%. Brandt suggests that Bitcoin is currently forming a similar technical pattern known as a broadening top, which has historically indicated market tops preceding substantial corrections.
These projections diverge significantly from those of other leading figures in the crypto space. For example, Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, and Cathie Wood of ARK Invest, have forecast Bitcoin to reach $1 million by 2030. The discrepancy lies not only in the target price but also in the expected timeline. Armstrong and Wood anticipate accelerated monetization, whereas Brandt argues that the market will require several more years to absorb the ongoing structural changes.
Supply Rotation and Institutional Inflows
The dynamics of the Bitcoin market are evolving beyond solely retail investor behavior. As historical holders sell their coins during the current pullback, institutional capital is actively acquiring positions. This inflow is occurring through various avenues, including funds, corporate treasuries, Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), sovereign funds, and other regulated investment vehicles.
According to CryptoQuant, as of November 20, cumulative net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had reached approximately $57.40 billion. This significant influx of institutional capital is reshaping the ownership structure of Bitcoin and transferring control of supply to actors who are more inclined to hold BTC through extended market cycles.
Michael Saylor exemplifies this long-term investment perspective. His company, MicroStrategy, purchased an additional 8,178 BTC for $836 million during the recent downturn, increasing its total holdings to 649,870 BTC, which represents over $6.15 billion in unrealized gains. This strategic accumulation underscores a clear message: the market is transitioning into a phase where a long-term outlook will be crucial for those positioned to benefit from the next leg of the bull cycle.