As Bitcoin continues to dominate the cryptocurrency landscape, experts remain divided on its short-term volatility and long-term potential. While some analysts foresee significant cyclical corrections, bullish forecasts for Bitcoin’s future price targets remain prevalent, driven by increasing adoption and real-world use cases. Staying informed about these perspectives is crucial for investors navigating the increasingly complex crypto markets.
Key Takeaways
- •Vineet Budki predicts Bitcoin will experience a 65-70% decline in the next two years, citing a lack of understanding among traders.
- •Despite potential corrections, Bitcoin could reach $1 million within the next decade, supported by growing adoption and real-world applications.
- •The traditional four-year cycle for Bitcoin is considered obsolete by some experts, with macroeconomic factors now driving price movements.
- •Institutional accumulation of Bitcoin, holding nearly 20% of the supply, is viewed as a stabilizing force in the market.
- •Contrasting views persist, with some industry leaders asserting that Bitcoin’s cycles remain intact amid changing market dynamics.
Short-Term Price Concerns and Long-Term Optimism
During the recent Global Blockchain Congress 2025 in Dubai, Vineet Budki, CEO of venture firm Sigma Capital, warned that Bitcoin’s price could experience a significant cyclical downturn. He forecast a retracement of 65% to 70% over the next two years, attributing this to traders’ limited understanding of the asset. Budki explained:
“Bitcoin will not lose its utility if it comes down to $70,000. The problem is that people don’t know its utility, and when people buy assets that they don’t understand and grasp, they tend to sell first. That is where the selling pressure comes from.”
Despite these short-term concerns, Budki remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, predicting that it could surpass $1 million per coin within the next decade. This growth, he asserts, will be fueled not only by speculation but also by expanding real-world applications of Bitcoin in various industries.
The Evolving Bitcoin Cycle: Halving vs. Macroeconomics
Industry analysts continue to debate whether Bitcoin’s well-known four-year halving cycle remains relevant in 2025. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, argues that the cycle is no longer the primary driver of market movements. Instead, macroeconomic influences such as interest rate policies and the expansion of the money supply are now more influential in shaping Bitcoin’s price.
Institutional Adoption and Market Stability
Supporting the view that macroeconomic factors are increasingly dominant, some experts point to rising institutional adoption as a source of market stability. Major financial institutions, government entities, and crypto-focused ETFs collectively hold nearly 4 million BTC, representing about 20% of the total supply. This large-scale accumulation is seen as a buffer against extreme volatility.
Persistent Cyclical Dynamics
However, Seamus Rocca, CEO of Xapo Bank, emphasized that the traditional cycle still applies. He noted that many investors currently regard Bitcoin as a risk-on asset rather than a store of value. This perception continues to influence the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price movements, despite its fundamentals as digital gold.