- •Conflicting analyses on U.S. government shutdown duration by major financial institutions.
- •Goldman Sachs expects a shorter shutdown ending by October 15.
- •Morgan Stanley predicts potential shutdown lasting up to 29 days.
Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have analyzed the U.S. government shutdown, starting October 1, predicting a duration of 10 to possibly 29 days, affecting federal operations.
The shutdown raises economic uncertainty, potentially impacting cryptocurrency market volatility and investor sentiment, even as financial markets operate independently from government influences.
Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Shutdown Predictions Diverge
Morgan Stanley predicts the U.S. government shutdown could extend up to 29 days, based on U.S. Treasury bond options. Goldman Sachs counters this, noting the unlikely scenario of military personnel missing paychecks, suggesting a resolution by October 15. Polymarket data indicates an 85% chance of continuation beyond this date.
The potential extension of the shutdown suggests broader implications for market confidence, particularly crypto markets, often viewed as risky during volatile periods. Financial analysts stress the importance of a swift resolution to maintain economic stability.
"U.S. Treasury bond options indicate that the U.S. government shutdown will last at least 10 days and could last as long as 29 days." - Morgan Stanley Analyst, Morgan Stanley
Bitcoin Resilience Amid Potential Shutdown Impacts
Did you know? The last U.S. government shutdown that lasted over two weeks was in 2018, highlighting the potential for economic disruption and market volatility during extended budgetary impasses.
Bitcoin (BTC), with a current price of $122,046.90, holds a market cap of $2.43 trillion, representing a 58.36% dominance. Despite market volatility, BTC saw a 9.26% rise over 30 days, per CoinMarketCap reports on October 9, 2025.
The Coincu research team highlights potential for regulatory scrutiny during prolonged shutdowns due to fiscal instability, potentially leading to future technological innovations or reforms in federal financial strategies.