Key Points
- •U.S. shutdown persists as Trump asserts victory in spending cuts.
- •Congress absentee leaves federal operations in limbo.
- •Market uncertainty rises; prediction markets show 68% continuation likelihood.
The U.S. government shutdown, starting October 1, 2025, continues with President Trump asserting victory in efforts to cut federal spending, despite stalled negotiations in Washington.
This ongoing deadlock freezes billions in funding, potentially affecting markets and government operations, yet crypto assets remain stable amid macroeconomic uncertainties.
Trump Advocates Spending Cuts Amid Congressional Standoff
The prolonged U.S. government shutdown, starting October 1, 2025, remains unresolved as President Donald Trump maintains his administration is "winning" by reducing federal spending. Trump's statements suggest confidence in the fiscal strategy despite stalled congressional negotiations, highlighting Republican budget priorities. With U.S. congressional leaders leaving Washington without a funding deal, the government remains unfunded, leaving agencies shuttered and workers furloughed.
Agencies may see large‑scale layoffs, according to White House officials, using the shutdown disruption period to restructure operations. Freezing billions in project funding continues, notably affecting projects in Democratic states. As the deadlock persists, the Trump administration may leverage workforce reductions to achieve long‑term budgetary goals, impacting federal operations significantly.
Reflecting the business sector's apprehension, prediction markets estimate a 68% probability of the shutdown extending beyond October 15, indicating heightened market risk. Despite the shutdown, major cryptocurrency assets like BTC and ETH have not seen significant volatility, suggesting market resilience. Statements from Congress members, such as U.S. Rep. Paul Tonko, criticize the shutdown as politically motivated, undermining civil service functions.
Shutdown's Historical Impact and Cryptocurrency Performance
Did you know? During the 2013 government shutdown, the S&P 500 fell about 4%, but Bitcoin saw modest gains as some investors turned to cryptocurrencies amid government dysfunction.
As per CoinMarketCap, Ethereum (ETH) remains stable at $4,535.36 with a market cap of $547 billion and market dominance at 12.99%. Despite the U.S. government shutdown, ETH saw a 13.31% rise over the past week, indicating investor confidence and increased trading volume at $42 billion, marking a 10.62% increase. With a circulating supply of 120 million, Ethereum's value increased 77.17% over 90 days, maintaining its strength amid macroeconomic events.
The Coincu research team suggests potential long‑term regulatory and technological impacts from the shutdown, influencing market dynamics. Historical patterns show shutdown‑induced short‑term risk‑on movements, which could attract institutional investment into cryptocurrency as a hedge. Regulatory slowdowns may delay scrutiny on crypto markets, potentially affecting compliance timelines and industry regulations.