On-Chain Shift Signals Risk for XRP Investors
The XRP price, currently holding steady near $2.20, appears stable on the surface, but a critical on-chain shift is flashing a major warning sign: the asset's most loyal investors the Long-Term Holders (LTHs) are suddenly turning from supporters into sellers. This unexpected distribution, driven by the lure of profits, has created a serious short-term risk, potentially leading to a sharp price correction that could send XRP tumbling toward $1.81.
The Sudden Betrayal: 56% Spike in Long-Term Selling
The core of the problem lies with the LTH cohort, the very investors typically counted on to provide stability:
- •Soaring Outflows: The Hodler Net Position Change shows LTH selling increased by a shocking 56% in just two days (from 54 million XRP on November 23 to 84 million XRP on November 25).
- •The Incentive: The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric explains this behavior. LTH NUPL is hovering near 0.50, placing these investors squarely in the "belief–denial" region a zone historically associated with local market tops where the temptation to take profits becomes overwhelming.
- •Historical Warning: This is not a random spike. A similar increase in LTH selling pressure between November 16 and 18 immediately preceded a 12% price drop that sent XRP from $2.22 to $1.96.
Technical Conflict: Short-Term Strength vs. LTH Weakness
While LTHs are selling, shorter-term investors are doing the opposite, setting up a structural conflict:
- •Short-Term Accumulation: The one-to-three-month and one-week-to-one-month holding bands are both showing an increase in supply held, meaning newer investors are actively accumulating even as the price slows.
- •Weak Breakout Momentum: The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks large-wallet inflows, is barely above zero and stuck below a descending trendline. This means the buying power entering the market is not strong enough to confidently offset the rising LTH distribution, keeping the price trapped.
Final Verdict: The $2.06 Level Decides the Crash
XRP is at a pivotal point. The long-term holders' profit-taking creates a significant downside vulnerability that could reverse the recent positive ETF momentum.
- •Critical Support: The immediate line in the sand is $2.06. If LTH selling accelerates and the price closes below this support, the bearish thesis will confirm.
- •Downside Target: Losing $2.06 risks a direct move toward the recent local bottom at $1.81.
- •Upside Requirement: To invalidate the risk, XRP needs a clean close above $2.24, which would then open the path toward $2.58 and $2.69. Until that happens, the LTH distribution remains the biggest red flag.
Important Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on technical analysis and market data. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or cryptocurrency. The cryptocurrency market is highly speculative, volatile, and subject to external factors. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.