The Impact of Presidential Elections on the Crypto Market
Time flies like water, and almost a year ago, Trump gradually increased his votes and was elected president. During the election propaganda process that was ongoing this time last year, everyone was excitedly waiting to hear Harris say a few good words about crypto. Then Trump won the elections and shaped his economic policies to influence the crypto market as he saw fit. His family profited handsomely from this venture, and tariffs balanced market gains.
Significance of November 1 and Cryptocurrencies
For almost a year, discussions have revolved around Trump’s tariffs. Last year, after the NYT reported that tariffs might be postponed, people began to anticipate a less chaotic 2025. Once Trump took office, he told the world, “We will take back what’s ours by force; you’re exploiting us.” As a result, double-digit tariff rates were imposed.
His standoff with China led to triple-digit tariff rates at one point. However, both the US and China realized that continuously raising tariffs was not a viable solution; eventually, both sides negotiated. There were two instances where tensions escalated, bridges were burned, and headlines proclaimed that “global trade” was dismantling decades-old rules. Yet, after these tensions, two agreements were reached, with a curious public now wondering if a third handshake is imminent.
November 1 marks a significant date for cryptocurrencies. On this day, China plans to enforce “export restrictions,” while the US will impose a “155% tariff” on Chinese imports. NVIDIA finds itself losing everything in the Chinese market, and restrictions on selling AI chips to China have caused China to state, “We no longer want them.”
The US is imposing heavy taxes on products it imports and exports, while China plans to stop the sale of rare earth elements completely—a critical component for the production of many technology products like vehicle batteries or chips. Consequently, China’s actions will counter the US’s sale of its heavily-taxed goods. This development is not limited to the US; similar actions are being taken globally, partly due to the Netherlands’ seizure of a Chinese company’s assets.
In summary, November 1 will be a day when both sides play their biggest cards. Either a third agreement will occur, or global chaos will accelerate, significantly impacting cryptocurrencies in November.
US Tariff Revenues
Trump is satisfied with the revenue generated by tariffs. He finds it irrelevant who bears the brunt of the high tariffs, as money continues to flow into the US treasury. Moreover, Trump has announced plans to distribute a portion of these revenues in $1,000-$2,000 checks to US citizens. How significant is this revenue? It’s an increasing source of income month-to-month. In September, customs revenue surged by $22.4 billion annually, reaching a record $29.7 billion. It was $29.5 billion in August, with revenue consistently rising for seven consecutive months.
“In the fiscal year 2025, customs revenues increased by $118 billion annually to a record $195 billion. This represents a fivefold increase compared to 2018.
At the current pace, customs revenues could exceed $350 billion in the fiscal year 2026, growing at an unprecedented rate.” – TKL