Leading analysts are revising their Bitcoin forecasts downward as the broader crypto market faces a steep cooldown. ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood has trimmed her 2030 price projection by $300,000, while Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn has slashed his year-end target by $65,000 — both citing slower growth, stablecoin competition, and shifting investor sentiment.
Key Takeaways
- •Cathie Wood reduced ARK Invest’s 2030 Bitcoin price target from $1.5 million to $1.2 million.
- •Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn cut his 2025 forecast to $120,000, below Bitcoin’s recent all-time high.
- •Analysts cite stablecoin expansion, capital rotation, and retail fatigue as major headwinds.
ARK Invest Revises Long-Term Bitcoin Forecast
In an interview with CNBC, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood adjusted her once-bullish outlook for Bitcoin, cutting her 2030 target from $1.5 million to $1.2 million. The move follows the rapid expansion of stablecoins, which she said have taken on roles originally envisioned for Bitcoin.
“Given what’s happening to stablecoins, which are serving emerging markets in a way that we thought Bitcoin would, I think we could take maybe $300,000 off that bullish case,” Wood said.
She noted that fiat-pegged digital assets have grown faster than anticipated, serving as effective digital cash in developing economies. “Stablecoins are usurping part of the role Bitcoin was supposed to fulfill,” she added.
Still, Wood emphasized that Bitcoin remains “digital gold,” projecting it could capture half of gold’s total market value over time.
Her stance aligns with a recent report from VanEck, which also anticipates Bitcoin could reach parity with half of gold’s market capitalization following the next halving event.
Galaxy Digital Cuts 2025 Target Amid Market Selloff
Galaxy Digital’s Head of Firmwide Research, Alex Thorn, also revised his Bitcoin outlook, lowering his 2025 target from $185,000 to $120,000. The new estimate places Bitcoin below its record high of more than $126,000 reached in early October.
“At the time of writing, crypto is experiencing a major, multi-week selloff,” Thorn said in a research note. “Bitcoin is trading below $100,000 for the first time since late June. As a result of this market performance and other factors, we are revising our 2025 year-end bullish Bitcoin target from $185,000 to $120,000.”
Thorn’s report pointed to several structural and behavioral pressures.
Large holders have been shifting Bitcoin into ETFs and institutional portfolios, signaling maturity but reducing short-term liquidity. A wave of leveraged liquidations in October further weakened market confidence.
He also cited the rotation of capital into artificial intelligence, gold, and top technology stocks. The continued rise of stablecoins, he added, has redirected funds toward payment infrastructure instead of Bitcoin accumulation.
Retail engagement remains thin, with many traders preferring speculative meme tokens over long-term Bitcoin positions. Meanwhile, discussions of a U.S. Bitcoin reserve have yet to materialize into policy action, cooling institutional enthusiasm.
Bitcoin’s “Maturity Era” and the Broader Market Outlook
According to Thorn, Bitcoin has entered a “maturity era,” characterized by institutional adoption, passive investment flows, and reduced volatility. “If Bitcoin can maintain the ~$100k level, we believe the almost three-year bull market will remain structurally intact,” he wrote. “Though the pace of future gains may be slower.”
Despite the cautious tone among crypto-native firms, traditional financial institutions are offering a slightly more optimistic view. JPMorgan analysts recently projected Bitcoin could rise to around $170,000 within the next 6 to 12 months, arguing that the recent deleveraging phase appears to be ending.
The contrast between Wall Street forecasts and those from crypto research firms highlights the market’s uncertain direction. Investors are now weighing whether Bitcoin will continue maturing as a slower-moving institutional asset or reclaim its volatile, high-growth character of earlier cycles.
Understanding the Key Terms
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies pegged to fiat currencies such as the U.S. dollar. Their stability and liquidity have made them popular for payments and cross-border transfers, especially in emerging markets.
Halving refers to the programmed reduction in Bitcoin mining rewards that occurs roughly every four years, limiting new supply and historically driving price rallies.
ETFs, or exchange-traded funds, allow institutional investors to gain Bitcoin exposure without directly holding the asset, contributing to both price stability and slower retail-driven growth.
Closing Thoughts
While long-term optimism for Bitcoin remains, short-term expectations are cooling. With forecasts lowered by both ARK Invest and Galaxy Digital, the market appears to be settling into a new phase defined by stability, institutional participation, and tempered growth.