BitMine chair Tom Lee has adjusted his previously firm year-end Bitcoin price forecast. While he had widely promoted a $250,000 target, Lee is now expressing a more cautious outlook, suggesting only a "maybe" for Bitcoin to reclaim its October all-time high of $125,100 before the close of the year.
"I think it’s still very likely that Bitcoin is going to be above $100,000 before year-end, and maybe even to a new high," Lee stated during an interview with CNBC on Wednesday.
This marks a notable shift from Lee's earlier projections. He initially floated the $250,000 year-end Bitcoin (BTC) price target earlier in 2024 and continued to reiterate it through early October.
Lee's prediction was among the more optimistic in the industry. Other prominent figures, such as Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, had warned around October that "crazy stuff" would need to occur for Bitcoin to reach such a level.
Despite the revision, Lee believes that some of Bitcoin's strongest performance may still be ahead before the end of 2025.
"I still think some of those best days are going to happen before year-end," he commented, with 35 days remaining in the year.
Bitcoin's Volatile Gains and Market Dynamics
Lee highlighted Bitcoin's historical tendency to achieve the majority of its annual gains within a concentrated period. He noted that the asset typically "makes its move" in just around 10 trading days each year.
This observation is shared by many in the cryptocurrency space. Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley mentioned in a February 2024 X post that while the timing of these significant days is unpredictable, missing Bitcoin's top 10 performing days historically has meant missing nearly all of its returns.
In 2024, Bitcoin's 10 strongest days collectively yielded a 52% return, while the remaining 355 days saw an average return of -15%.
Bitcoin has experienced a downtrend since October 10, facing pressure from a significant $19 billion liquidation event across the crypto market. This occurred following U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods.
The cryptocurrency only managed to reclaim the $90,000 level on Wednesday, after spending six consecutive days trading below it.
This price action comes even though November has historically been the strongest month on average for Bitcoin since 2013, according to CoinGlass data.
Concurrently, economist Timothy Peterson suggested on Monday that Bitcoin's bottom may have already been reached or is likely to occur this week.
Evaluating Tom Lee's Bitcoin Prediction History
If Bitcoin does not meet Lee's revised year-end projection, it would not be the first instance of one of his Bitcoin price forecasts falling short.
In January 2018, Lee predicted that Bitcoin could reach as high as $125,000 by 2022. However, the all-time high for Bitcoin in 2018 was $17,172.
Conversely, Lee has also demonstrated accuracy with his price calls in the past.
In July 2017, Lee projected that in a base-case scenario, Bitcoin could reach $20,000 by 2022, with a more bullish outlook suggesting a potential price of up to $55,000 within the same timeframe.
Bitcoin did indeed reach $20,000 in December 2020 and subsequently hit $55,000 in March 2021, according to CoinMarketCap data.