BitMine chair Tom Lee has walked back one of the most aggressively bullish Bitcoin targets of the year, softening his long-standing call for a $250,000 BTC price by year-end. Speaking on CNBC, Lee said he still expects Bitcoin to finish above $100,000 but is no longer confident about a parabolic surge.
“I think it’s still very likely that Bitcoin is going to be above $100,000 before year-end, and maybe even to a new high,” Lee said. But the emphasis on “maybe” marks a noticeable shift from his earlier tone. Throughout early 2024 and into October, Lee repeatedly asserted that $250,000 was achievable. His revised stance comes as Bitcoin struggles to recover from a steep market drawdown. BTC is trading around $90,801 and is down roughly 1.85% over the past 12 months. October’s all-time high of $125,100 now feels distant amid continued selling pressure, macro-induced volatility and capital outflows across crypto markets. Lee’s earlier prediction placed him among the most optimistic voices in the industry. Others, including Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, warned at the time that “crazy stuff” would need to happen for Bitcoin to reach those levels.
Investor Takeaway
Forecast fatigue is setting in. Analysts who pushed extreme price targets in early 2025 are beginning to reset expectations as liquidity tightens and macro shocks weigh on BTC momentum.
Why Lee Still Believes Bitcoin Could Surprise Traders
Despite stepping back from the $250,000 target, Lee maintains that Bitcoin often posts its strongest gains within remarkably short windows. He highlighted a pattern widely observed by investors: BTC historically generates the bulk of its annual upside during just 10 trading days each year. This concept gained traction after Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley shared similar analysis earlier in 2024, noting that missing Bitcoin’s top 10 days often means missing nearly all of its returns. The trend has held for more than a decade. In 2024 alone, the best 10 trading days delivered a combined gain of 52%, while the remaining 355 days produced an average return of -15%. Lee believes this asymmetric behavior means traders should not assume the year is finished.
“I still think some of those best days are going to happen before year-end,” he said, pointing to the remaining 35 days of 2025. Bitcoin recently reclaimed $90,000 after spending six days below that level, a small sign of stabilization after a period defined by forced selling and liquidations. The downturn was triggered by a $19 billion market-wide wipeout following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports.
Investor Takeaway
Short, violent upside bursts remain a core feature of Bitcoin’s market structure. Long-term holders benefit most, while short-term timers risk missing the rare windows that drive annual returns.
Does Seasonality Still Matter for Bitcoin?
Historically, November has been Bitcoin’s strongest month on average since 2013, according to CoinGlass. But this year, seasonality has not yet delivered the expected lift. Traders who hoped for a repeat of past November rallies instead faced a combination of deleveraging, geopolitical uncertainty and reduced liquidity across spot and derivatives markets. Still, some analysts argue the worst may be behind BTC. Economist Timothy Peterson said this week that Bitcoin’s bottom either already occurred or will form before the end of the week. If that holds true, Lee’s prediction of a year-end recovery may still be within reach, even if it falls short of $125,000 or $250,000.
How Accurate Have Tom Lee’s Bitcoin Predictions Been?
Lee’s track record is mixed. Some of his long-term calls proved accurate, while others took years longer than expected—or never materialized within the projected timeframe.
- •January 2018: Lee predicted Bitcoin could reach $125,000 by 2022. BTC eventually hit that level, but only in October 2025.
- •July 2017: He projected a base-case scenario of $20,000 by 2022 and a bullish case of $55,000. BTC reached $20,000 in December 2020 and $55,000 in March 2021.
Lee’s optimistic price targets often gain media attention but sometimes underestimate the impact of external shocks—from regulation to leverage unwinds to broader macro cycles.