For the first time since bitcoin’s debut on this chart in 2011, it may finish the year neither at the top nor the bottom of the leaderboard, an anomaly that potentially suggests how the asset is maturing. Historically, bitcoin has defined the extremes of annual performance, swinging from surges of hundreds or thousands of percent, to brutal declines of way over 50% in a year.
In 2025, however, it finds itself overshadowed by gold, which is on pace for a near 60% gain, its strongest rally since 1979. Several factors have contributed to this rare flip in leadership: persistent inflation, falling interest rates, and a weaker US dollar have revived the appeal of traditional hedges like gold, while bitcoin’s once-explosive upside appears to be moderating as the asset class expands and liquidity deepens. What’s notable is that both assets are participating in the broader “debasement trade,” yet gold has become the standout performer, buoyed by central bank buying, retail demand, and a surge of capital seeking safety amid global uncertainty.
The question now is whether this year marks a temporary blip or a sign of a longer-term shift. Bitcoin’s diminishing percentage returns are natural as the market matures, the law of large numbers inevitably tames volatility, but the fact that gold is outpacing crypto in a year defined by talk of currency debasement and risk appetite is worth noting. As you can see from the chart, all asset classes are in the green for the first time since 2019.
These moves may signal that investors are rediscovering the value of tangible stores of wealth, or that bitcoin’s role is evolving from a once volatile asset to a more established one. Either way, the divergence between gold and bitcoin underscores a changing market dynamic: one where both assets may continue to serve as hedges against monetary excess, but not always with bitcoin as the undisputed leader.
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