Market Analysis and Price Action
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to shuffle aimlessly between 86,000 and 89,000 after repeated rejections near the top of that range, putting the ambitious five-day rebound from the seven-month low at 80,500 touched on Friday, to the test.
While the modest rebound gave traders hope that a bottom had formed, the momentum indicators suggest a substantial recovery may not be ready yet, with the MACD remaining overextended below zero but above its red signal line, and the RSI hovering near the 30 oversold threshold. Moreover, price action is showing signs it could continue its acceleration lower, which gained momentum particularly after breaking below the long-term ascending trendline drawn from May 2024.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
To the downside, 83,400 and 80,500, which align with April lows, are critical support levels. A breach below these would confirm a steep correction toward the 74,470 ‘reciprocal tariff’ level.
Conversely, Bitcoin must break above 89,000 with a clean daily close to weaken downside potential and possibly regain short-term control toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 126,163-80,500 pullback at 91,364, followed by 93,200 and the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 94,268. That said, these higher targets remain unlikely for now while bearish signals persist.
Year-to-Date Performance and Outlook
Overall, the leading cryptocurrency, now down 7% year-to-date, has struggled to stage a meaningful recovery since consolidating from the record high of 126,163 in early October and remains well below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of that sharp one-month pullback. Bitcoin is now on track to end a fifth straight week in the red for the first time since April 2022, down 21% for the month, with November poised to become its worst trading month in over three years if downward pressure continues despite current stabilization attempts.
