A significant decrease in Strategy’s Bitcoin acquisitions this year, coupled with the announcement of a $1.4 billion reserve fund this week, indicates that Michael Saylor’s firm is preparing for a potential bear market, according to CryptoQuant.
The on-chain analytics firm stated in a report on December 3rd that Strategy’s monthly Bitcoin purchases have fallen dramatically from a peak of 134,000 in early 2025 to just 9,100 in November. The firm added only 130 BTC in the current month.
This report from CryptoQuant follows Strategy's recent announcement of establishing a $1.4 billion reserve. This reserve is intended to ensure the company can meet its debt obligations for the next two years.
CryptoQuant commented on X, stating, "Strategy’s Bitcoin buying has collapsed through 2025. A 24-month buffer makes one thing clear: they’re bracing for the bear market."
The firm elaborated that the creation of this 24-month financial buffer suggests an anticipation that Bitcoin's price might remain stagnant or decline for an extended period. It also implies a potential decrease in the receptiveness of capital markets to future stock issuances.
The move also signals an acknowledgment of the possibility of a "deep or extended bitcoin drawdown," CryptoQuant added.
Strategy’s Treasury Strategy Under Scrutiny Amid Stock Price Decline
There is growing apprehension surrounding Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury strategy, particularly after its MSTR stock experienced a decline of over 50% in the past six months and a 24% drop in the last month.
This downturn has resulted in the company’s enterprise value falling below the market value of its 650,000 Bitcoin holdings.
Strategy Announces $1.4 Billion Cash Reserve to Meet Debt Obligations
Critics have suggested that Strategy’s declining stock price and the broader downturn in the crypto market could compel the company to sell its Bitcoin holdings to repay investors.
While Michael Saylor has consistently maintained his stance of "never selling Bitcoin," Strategy’s CEO Phong Le added to investor concerns by stating recently that the company might consider selling some of its Bitcoin under specific circumstances.
These circumstances include situations where the company's stock falls below its net asset value or if it loses access to financing.
In an effort to alleviate investor anxiety, Strategy announced a $1.4 billion USD reserve. A press release indicated that this reserve is designed to cover at least one year, and ultimately two years, of dividend payments, providing the company with a financial cushion. CEO Phong Le stated that the reserve currently exceeds the company’s near-term payout obligations.
Strategy has acquired 130 BTC for ~$11.7 million at ~$89,960 per bitcoin. As of 11/30/2025, we hodl 650,000 $BTC acquired for ~$48.38 billion at ~$74,436 per bitcoin. $MSTR$STRC$STRK$STRF$STRD$STREhttps://t.co/UkWX7PRHms
— Michael Saylor (@saylor) December 1, 2025
Critics have raised concerns about Strategy's ability to meet its preferred stock obligations, a worry that is exacerbated by the current weakness in the broader market.
MSCI Delisting Risk Threatens Billion-Dollar Outflows
Adding to Strategy’s challenges is the risk of being delisted from MSCI indexes next month.
JPMorgan issued a warning last week that Strategy could face significant financial repercussions, potentially in the billions, if it is removed from MSCI and other index providers' listings.
This warning came after MSCI announced it is considering excluding companies whose digital asset holdings constitute more than 50% of their total assets from its indexes. The final decision is expected on January 15th.
According to JPMorgan, if Strategy is delisted, it could experience an outflow of up to $2.8 billion in liquidity. The firm also estimated that billions more could follow if other index providers adopt a similar approach. Passive funds that utilize index-based allocations currently hold approximately $9 billion of the Bitcoin buyer's stock, through indexes such as MSCI USA and Nasdaq 100.
Michael Saylor responded on X, stating, "Strategy is not a fund, not a trust, and not a holding company. We’re a publicly traded operating company with a $500 million software business and a unique treasury strategy that uses Bitcoin as productive capital."