Under the leadership of Michael Saylor, Strategy, a company known for its substantial Bitcoin treasury, has prepared for impending market weakness by amassing a cash reserve of $1.44 billion. According to CryptoQuant, this signifies a shift in Strategy’s approach, moving from an aggressive Bitcoin acquisition strategy since 2020 to a liquidity-focused protection model. On-chain data suggests that the bear trend, which began at the end of 2025, is intensifying, forecasting Bitcoin trading between $70,000 and $55,000 in 2026.
Strategy’s Strategic Shift: Dollar Reserve and Hedging Model
CryptoQuant noted that Strategy’s establishment of a two-year cash buffer indicates the company’s anticipation of prolonged market stagnation or weakness. The $1.44 billion reserve is aimed at covering dividend payments and debt interest. It was explained that the reserve was created using funds from the company’s recent equity issuance and that this safety net may expand to cover up to 24 months. This approach serves as a financial security mechanism, allowing the company to meet obligations without being forced to sell Bitcoin.
CryptoQuant emphasized that this model redefines Strategy’s inviolable Bitcoin position. The management now acknowledges its ability to take flexible measures, such as hedging or limited sales, rather than solely holding assets. The analysis firm reported a significant reduction in Strategy’s monthly Bitcoin purchases from 134,000 BTC in November 2024 to 9,100 BTC in November 2025. By December, only 135 BTC were bought. This reduction in buying intensity points to a transformation that strengthens long-term stability despite the weakened demand channel in the market.
Mizuho: No Immediate Plans for Bitcoin Sales
Mizuho Securities characterized Strategy’s dollar reserve decision as liquidity risk management, maintaining an outperform rating and a target price of $484 for the stock. In an investor session with the company’s CFO Andrew Kang, it was noted that the reserve acts as the last line of defense before Bitcoin sales, which would only be considered if mNAV remains below one for an extended period. Additionally, the company is positioned to maintain operations and dividend payouts for three years with Bitcoin’s current price around $92,700.
Mizuho indicated that Strategy plans to further increase its reserve when market conditions are favorable, viewing Bitcoin sales as the last option. CryptoQuant argued that this approach, while ending the aggressive buying phase, would instill long-term stability in the market.