The governance token of a high-profile stablecoin protocol, co-founded by a Tether co-founder, has experienced a dramatic collapse of over 80% from its peak. This sharp decline has ignited allegations of insider trading and brought to light concerns about coordinated sell-offs that allegedly generated millions in profits for unidentified wallet addresses.
STBL, the governance token for an ambitious "Stablecoin 2.0" protocol co-founded by Reeve Collins, who is also a co-founder of Tether, reached an all-time high of approximately $0.60 on September 24, 2025. Within weeks, the token's value plummeted to lows near $0.08. This significant drop has resulted in substantial losses for retail investors, while on-chain investigators have uncovered evidence suggesting sophisticated trading operations extracted over $10 million during the token's volatile launch phase.
The token's sell-off has triggered a crisis of confidence for the project. This situation has been further exacerbated by the October depeg of its flagship USST stablecoin and increased scrutiny into whether insiders profited from privileged information during the token's launch.
Blockchain Forensics Expose Connected Wallets
The controversy surrounding the token's performance began in mid-September when blockchain analytics platform Bubblemaps published an analysis. This analysis revealed that the top five traders by STBL trading volume were "suspiciously interconnected" and had collectively profited over $10 million.
According to the Bubblemaps investigation, these five profit-making addresses received capital injections simultaneously. The funds were traced back to a common source that was funneled through Tornado Cash, a cryptocurrency mixing service frequently used to obscure transaction origins. The wallets also employed bots to borrow USDC from the Venus Protocol lending platform before executing coordinated trades.
The timing of these operations immediately raised red flags within the cryptocurrency community. The addresses accumulated STBL during its September launch phase and then systematically liquidated their positions as retail interest peaked. This strategy allowed them to secure profits exceeding $10 million before the token's subsequent dramatic collapse.
"I don't like these snipers; they could be insiders or maybe not, but they've dragged my $STBL portfolio deep underwater," one trader commented on social media platform X, reflecting the sentiment among retail investors who had acquired positions after the coordinated buying activity had already concluded.
Bubblemaps also noted that this group of bot-operated wallets had a history of extracting value from various tokens, not exclusively STBL. This suggests a pattern of sophisticated front-running or insider-informed trading across multiple token launches.
Team Denies Involvement, Pledges Transparency
STBL CEO Avtar Sehra strongly contested the characterization of the sellers as casual traders. He described them instead as "orchestrated and professional accounts" based on the findings from Bubblemaps. However, both Sehra and co-founder Reeve Collins have unequivocally denied any team involvement in the coordinated sell-offs.
"We're focused on building the protocol and adoption with the community," the STBL team stated in response to the allegations. "Allocations/vesting are unchanged. Furthermore, any tokens vesting this quarter won't be minted and will not enter circulation."
The team emphasized that treasury operations remain transparent and that no team allocations or vesting schedules have been altered. According to a statement released on October 4, team and investor wallets have remained inactive throughout the controversy. Only 5% of Q4's unlocked tokens were earmarked for operational expenses.
Despite these assurances, the damage to investor confidence was swift and severe. STBL's market capitalization plummeted from a peak near $300 million to approximately $40-50 million at current price levels, which range between $0.08 and $0.11. This represents an 80-85% decline from its all-time highs.
Stablecoin Depeg Compounds Crisis
The collapse of the governance token occurred against a backdrop of operational challenges with the protocol's core product. On October 10, STBL launched its flagship USST stablecoin, which immediately depegged to $0.96 within hours of its debut on Curve Finance.
Despite being backed by Ondo Finance's USDY—a yield-bearing asset collateralized by U.S. Treasuries—the stablecoin struggled with inadequate liquidity depth. The protocol had only $965,000 in Curve pools at launch, which was insufficient to maintain the peg under modest redemption pressure. The depeg triggered $466,000 in net outflows as traders lost confidence in the project's ability to manage its core stablecoin product.
"The depeg highlights execution risks for new stablecoins, even with institutional-grade collateral," analysts noted. This situation drew uncomfortable parallels to Terra's UST collapse, where the governance token (LUNA) and stablecoin entered a destructive feedback loop. STBL's price fell an additional 18% on the day of the depeg as traders priced in reflexive risks.
These operational difficulties have arisen at a particularly sensitive time, as the protocol moves forward with plans to mint 100 million USST in Q4 2025. The substantial increase in stablecoin supply has raised concerns about additional selling pressure on STBL, especially given shaken investor confidence and questions about whether the protocol can maintain adequate liquidity to support the peg.
Buyback Program Offers Potential Lifeline
In response to the crisis, CEO Avtar Sehra announced on October 13 that the protocol plans to initiate a token buyback program by the end of October. Under the proposed structure, 100% of USST minting fees would be directed toward STBL repurchases. Payouts would be made in USST, which holders can then stake through the protocol's Multi-Factor Staking (MFS) modules.
"Because all protocol revenue is directed into buybacks, every dollar of activity in the ecosystem directly translates into demand for STBL," Sehra explained. He positioned the initiative as central to the protocol's long-term value accrual mechanism.
The CEO estimates that each $1 million in monthly USST mints could remove approximately 4.6 million STBL tokens from circulation. This is equivalent to roughly 5% of the current supply and could potentially create upward price pressure if sentiment improves and stablecoin adoption materializes.
The announcement sparked a temporary 30% price surge for STBL in mid-October. However, technical indicators suggested the rally lacked conviction. The Chaikin Money Flow indicator showed capital outflows even as prices climbed, and the Balance of Power indicator registered negative readings, signaling that sellers were building positions despite the upward price movement.
Technical Analysis: Accumulation Zone or Further Decline?
Market observers are divided on whether STBL has established a bottom or faces additional downside. Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe suggested that the current price action near $0.09-$0.10 may represent a key accumulation phase, with the potential for a rebound toward the $0.17-$0.20 resistance range if sentiment improves.
However, van de Poppe cautioned that a sustained recovery requires meaningful volume increases and fresh capital inflows—conditions that remain elusive given the project's credibility challenges.
Technical indicators present a decidedly mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has registered oversold conditions below 30, which is typically a contrarian buy signal. STBL is also trading near Fibonacci retracement support at the 0.618 level, around $0.105, a technical zone that has historically attracted buyers.
Yet, bearish momentum persists. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows the 26-day exponential moving average stretching above the 12-day EMA, confirming bearish dominance. Trading volume has declined 42% from recent peaks, suggesting weak follow-through and a lack of conviction among buyers.
If current support fails, analysts warn that STBL could retest the $0.08 level or potentially decline further toward psychological support at $0.05, representing an additional 50% downside from current levels.
The "Stablecoin 2.0" Vision Under Scrutiny
The current crisis has cast a shadow over what Sehra and Collins described as an ambitious reimagining of stablecoin economics. The protocol's three-token model—comprising USST (stablecoin), YLD (yield-bearing NFT), and STBL (governance)—was positioned as "Stablecoin 2.0" and the "TCP/IP of money."
The design separates stablecoin principal from yield. Users receive USST for immediate use while retaining exposure to collateral returns through YLD tokens. This structure theoretically allows users to deploy capital in DeFi while capturing yield that traditional stablecoins like USDT and USDC retain for issuers.
The protocol leverages partnerships with prominent real-world asset (RWA) providers, including Ondo Finance, BlackRock's BUIDL, and Franklin Templeton's BENJI. These partnerships are intended to back USST with tokenized U.S. Treasury instruments, providing institutional-grade collateral that should theoretically maintain the dollar peg.
However, the execution challenges—particularly the immediate USST depeg and inadequate liquidity provisioning—have raised questions about whether the team can deliver on its technical vision, despite the pedigree of its founders and the quality of its collateral partnerships.
Broader Market Context
STBL's travails are unfolding against a backdrop of heightened scrutiny of stablecoin launches and concerns about insider trading in cryptocurrency markets. The allegations echo similar controversies that have plagued numerous token launches, where sophisticated traders with early access or privileged information systematically extract value from retail participants.
The use of Tornado Cash to obscure fund origins adds another layer of concern, particularly given ongoing regulatory attention to cryptocurrency mixing services following U.S. Treasury sanctions. While Bubblemaps found "no evidence that these traders are connected to the core team," the sophisticated coordination and timing of the operations suggest access to non-public information or advanced algorithmic trading strategies that disadvantage ordinary investors.
The project's 120% week-over-week volatility has made it particularly attractive to speculative traders while creating treacherous conditions for long-term holders. With 24-hour trading volumes fluctuating between $38-60 million against a market capitalization near $50 million, the token exhibits the high turnover characteristic of distressed assets experiencing capitulation selling.
Final thoughts
Whether STBL can recover from its current crisis depends on several critical factors converging successfully:
- •USST peg stability: The stablecoin must demonstrate reliable maintenance of its dollar peg with adequate liquidity across multiple venues.
- •Buyback program execution: The protocol must generate sufficient minting fees to fund meaningful token buybacks, requiring substantial USST adoption.
- •Regulatory clarity: The protocol's alignment with the U.S. GENIUS Act and compliance with evolving stablecoin regulations will influence institutional adoption.
- •Trust restoration: The team must overcome allegations of insider involvement and demonstrate transparent operations.
The planned Multi-Factor Staking launch on October 24 and monthly buybacks beginning October 31 represent near-term catalysts that could stabilize sentiment if executed successfully. However, failure to restore confidence in USST's peg before these initiatives launch risks invalidating the protocol's core thesis.
For now, STBL exists in a precarious state—trading at 80% below its peak, facing insider trading allegations, grappling with a depegged stablecoin, and attempting to execute an ambitious recovery plan. Meanwhile, market participants question whether the project can overcome its operational and reputational challenges.
The coming weeks will prove critical in determining whether STBL represents a genuine accumulation opportunity for contrarian investors or a cautionary tale about the risks of sophisticated information asymmetry in cryptocurrency markets.