Bitcoin’s outlook has shifted again, and this time the caution is coming from one of Wall Street’s most closely followed crypto strategists.
Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick has lowered his year-end Bitcoin target to $100,000 and pushed his long-term $500,000 prediction out to 2030, extending the timeline by two years. His revised stance reflects what he calls a market “cold breeze”, not a full crypto winter, but a clear pause in momentum.
Why Kendrick Trimmed the 2025 Target
Kendrick’s downgrade comes at a moment when Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim the surges seen earlier in the year. BTC trades near $92,000 as of December 9, 2025, far below the October peak above $125,000. While outside analysts had set year-end expectations between $133,000 and $220,000, Kendrick now expects a far more conservative close at $100,000.
His reasoning centers on two factors: softer market conditions and the failure of recent rallies to extend into new highs. He describes the environment as chilly but not catastrophic, enough to slow Bitcoin’s trajectory without undermining the broader long-term trend.
Why the $500K Call Has Been Delayed
Kendrick’s long-standing projection for Bitcoin to reach $500,000 has not been abandoned, but it has been pushed back. The target, previously set for 2028, is now expected by 2030. This adjustment aligns with the current macro backdrop: slower inflows, pockets of extreme investor fear, and a market that is still digesting its sharp October reversal.
He maintains that structural demand remains intact, yet the timeline must reflect the cooling pace of institutional accumulation and lingering uncertainty around global economic conditions.
Current Market Structure Reflects the Pause
Bitcoin’s recent price behavior mirrors Kendrick’s more cautious tone. After the October all-time high, BTC entered a period of drawn-out consolidation. The market has struggled to build sustained momentum above $90,000, hinting at hesitation among both short-term traders and long-term allocators.
Sentiment indicators remain anchored in Extreme Fear, adding pressure during each failed breakout attempt. Despite these challenges, the broader structure still favors long-term upside once the market exits its current compression phase.
What This Means for the Months Ahead
Kendrick’s adjustment does not signal a bearish reversal. Instead, it reflects a recalibration of expectations as Bitcoin navigates a quieter, more orderly phase of the cycle. History shows that long consolidations often precede major expansions, but the timing of those expansions can shift as liquidity conditions evolve.
For now, Bitcoin’s path to six-figure territory looks slower than previously expected. Yet the thesis remains intact: this is a pause, not an ending, and a new phase of momentum could emerge once macro conditions stabilize and inflows return.