Speculation Grows Over A Possible Pardon For SBF

The CZ Effect: When One Pardon Leads to Another?

Donald Trump’s statement in favor of Changpeng Zhao, former CEO of Binance, triggered strong reactions within the crypto sphere and predictive markets. By publicly stating: "They said what he did wasn’t even a crime… I granted him a pardon at the request of many respectable people", the American president sent a strong signal to his pro-crypto base and, indirectly, to those closely following the Sam Bankman-Fried case. The impact of this statement was felt almost immediately on Polymarket, where speculation about a possible presidential pardon for SBF took off.

Here are the main factual elements observed:

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  An immediate increase in bets on an SBF pardon: the probability on Polymarket rose from 5.6% to 12% within a few hours, briefly reaching 19.1%, before falling back to 15.5%.
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  Significant volumes wagered: approximately 302,000 dollars were placed specifically on the eventuality of a pardon for Sam Bankman-Fried, with a total of over 6.5 million dollars placed on various contracts related to this theme.
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  CZ’s reaction: the founder of Binance responded with few words on X, in response to Trump’s announcement. This message was enough to galvanize speculation.
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  The reception by traders: predictive markets immediately interpreted these signals as a political opening to pardons in the crypto world, especially for major figures like SBF.

This sequence of events shows how the political intervention of a polarizing figure like Donald Trump can profoundly reshape the expectations of an ecosystem already sensitive to external signals.

Polymarket: Between Speculation and Political Signals

Beyond the announcement effect caused by CZ’s pardon, it is the very mechanics of predictive markets that deserve attention here. Unlike a purely judicial or rational logic, these platforms like Polymarket react primarily to political, social, and media signals, much more than to the actual state of proceedings. Several observers highlight this, for whom this surge reflects how predictive markets, driven by sentiment, respond more to political signals than to concrete legal progress.

The expansion of Polymarket in the United States, facilitated by CFTC approval and the recent acquisition of QCEX for 112 million dollars, has also amplified this dynamic. Benefiting from a more favorable framework, the platform has seen its activity grow rapidly, offering fertile ground for this type of highly reactive speculation. This case reveals how the boundary between justice and politics becomes blurred in the crypto universe. While a pardon for SBF remains hypothetical, the current dynamic shows that perceptions, more than facts, can guide scenarios. A new era is opening, where speculation and power merge, as was the case with bets on CZ’s presidential pardon.