Multiple spot crypto ETF approvals have become a certainty rather than a probability, according to Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas. The senior analyst says recent regulatory changes by the SEC have eliminated previous approval timelines and made new fund launches inevitable.
The agency's adoption of generic listing standards removed the significance of 19b-4 filings and their associated review deadlines. Balchunas explained that only S-1 registration statements now require a sign-off from the SEC's Division of Corporation Finance before products can debut.
Solana issuers recently filed their fourth S-1 amendment, suggesting imminent regulatory clearance. “The baby could come any day,” Balchunas wrote, urging market participants to prepare for launches that could happen without advance warning.
Original SEC deadlines had set Oct. 2 for LTC decisions, Oct. 10 for Solana rulings, and Oct. 17 for XRP determinations. Those dates no longer carry weight under the new framework, giving regulators flexibility to act on any schedule.
Balchunas and colleague James Seyffart previously estimated 95% approval odds for LTC, Solana, and XRP products back in June. Their forecasts also assigned 90% probability to eventual launches of DOGE, ADA, DOT, HBAR, and AVAX funds.
The SEC fast‑tracked its generic ETF standards earlier this month, invoking “good cause” to accelerate implementation. Review periods that previously stretched up to 240 days can now conclude in as few as 75 days under the streamlined process.
Major exchanges, including Nasdaq, NYSE Arca, and Cboe BZX, can list crypto funds meeting the generic requirements without submitting new 19b-4 paperwork. Assets must have maintained futures listings on designated contract markets for at least six months to qualify.
Coinbase Derivatives operates one such market, offering futures contracts for Bitcoin, Ethereum, LTC, Bitcoin Cash, and eight additional tokens, including SOL, XRP, and ADA. Multiple issuers withdrew their 19b-4 filings following the generic standards adoption.
Historical precedent suggests significant market expansion ahead. “The last time they implemented generic listings standards for ETFs, launches tripled,” Balchunas noted, projecting over 100 crypto funds could debut within 12 months. Chairman Paul Atkins has signaled a more accommodating regulatory stance toward digital assets since assuming leadership in April.