Market Overview and Analyst Forecast
Influential trader Crypto Tony forecasts Solana (SOL) heading to $95 support on a slow downside grind, as per his latest technical update. SOL trades at approximately $140.85, down 2% in the last 24 hours, testing key moving averages after failing to hold above $150 resistance. Bearish sentiment dominates the market, with the Fear & Greed Index at 15, indicating extreme fear. Analysts are closely watching the $105 level as the next potential support, with a break below $95 being a significant concern.
Technical Analysis of Solana's Downtrend
Solana, the high-speed blockchain, is exhibiting a bearish setup, according to veteran trader Crypto Tony. In a November 14 post, Tony shared a TradingView chart of SOL/USD, indicating a projected "slow move down to my $95 target." The chart depicted a predominantly bearish trend from August to November 2025, with recent price action coiling below a descending trendline originating from the September highs near $200.
At the time of publication on November 15, SOL was trading around $140.85, reflecting a 2% daily decrease and a 10% retreat from the previous week's peak of $155. Tony's analysis pointed to a breakdown below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), which was then acting as resistance around $148, accompanied by weakening trading volume on upward price movements. Immediate support was identified at $130, with a more critical test expected at $95, a level coinciding with multi-month channel lows and a previous accumulation zone. Tony characterized the movement as a "slow bleed, not a crash," advising patience amidst the market downturn.
Broader Market Influences and On-Chain Data
The current market conditions affecting Solana are not isolated. Despite a thriving ecosystem, evidenced by DeFi Total Value Locked (TVL) exceeding $10 billion and significant activity in meme coins, Solana faces headwinds from broader market trends. Bitcoin's struggle below the $100,000 mark and macroeconomic concerns, such as persistent inflation data, are contributing to market uncertainty. On-chain metrics reveal a 15% week-over-week increase in exchange inflows, suggesting potential profit-taking by investors. Concurrently, active addresses have decreased to 1.2 million, a decline from the high levels observed in October. The prevailing Fear & Greed Index, standing at 15, indicates a sentiment of extreme fear across the cryptocurrency market.
Potential Bullish Catalysts and Outlook
Despite the prevailing bearish sentiment, there are potential catalysts that could drive a bullish reversal for Solana. The upcoming Firedancer upgrade, scheduled for Q1 2026, is anticipated to enhance scalability by enabling sub-second transaction finality, which could reignite interest in the network's capabilities. Furthermore, ongoing discussions and speculation surrounding the potential approval of a Solana Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) could provide significant upward momentum. While some forecasts suggest a modest rebound to $156 by November 16, bears caution that a persistent global risk-off sentiment could lead to further price depreciation.
Trader Sentiment and Long-Term Perspective
Crypto Tony's analysis is valued for its methodical approach, focusing on chart patterns rather than speculative hype. For current Solana holders, the $95 level may present a significant buying opportunity, particularly if network adoption, exemplified by platforms like Pump.fun generating over $2 billion in fees year-to-date, remains robust. However, in the current environment of extreme fear, investors face a critical decision between holding their positions or liquidating them. Tony's post has garnered considerable attention, highlighting the enduring principle in cryptocurrency markets: periods of slow declines can often precede sharp reversals. The $95 price level is being closely monitored as a pivotal point that could determine the future trajectory for Solana.