Key Observations
- •$2.12 billion in USDC flowed into Binance, while $1.11 billion in SOL exited, indicating a bullish structure around the $120 support level.
- •SOL futures volume decreased by 3%, contrasting with significant jumps in BTC (43%) and ETH (24%), suggesting subdued trader engagement despite improved spot market conditions.
- •Relative unrealized profit has fallen to levels last seen in October 2023, pointing to a market-wide reset in profitability, similar to previous accumulation phases.
Stablecoin Inflows and SOL Supply Crunch Support the $120 Floor
Last week, Solana experienced a notable liquidity divergence on the Binance exchange. USDC inflows reached $2.12 billion, while SOL outflows surpassed $1.11 billion. Data from CryptoQuant suggests this dynamic is critical for defending key support levels, including $120, above which the price has recently stabilized.
Substantial stablecoin inflows often signify pending buy-side liquidity from large investors or institutional players who are partially positioned on the sidelines. Concurrently, outflows of the native token reduce selling pressure on exchanges, reinforcing the concept of a supply crunch.
The outflow of $450 million in USDT further highlighted a shift towards USDC-driven capital deployment within Solana's ecosystem, a trend historically associated with positive market behavior.
Despite a tightening supply profile, sustained demand is essential. Without active participation from spot buyers, the strength of the supply side alone may not be sufficient to sustain broader upward price movements.
According to Glassnode's cost basis distribution heatmap, a significant number of buyers acquired approximately 17.8 million SOL at a cost basis of $142, and an additional 16 million SOL at $135.
These price clusters function similarly to on-chain support and resistance zones:
- •Large clusters below the current price create strong support, as many holders are either in profit or near breakeven and have an incentive to defend their positions.
- •Large clusters above the current price can lead to potential resistance, as trapped liquidity may sell into any price recovery.
Therefore, at present, SOL needs to reclaim the $135 and $142 levels for these recent buyers to establish strong fundamental support.
Futures Activity Stalls as SOL Profit and Loss Resets
While on-chain flows indicate accumulation, derivatives activity suggests a more cautious market sentiment. SOL futures volume declined by 3%, even as Bitcoin and Ether saw substantial increases of 43% and 24%, respectively.
This disparity implies that Solana traders have been notably less active, which contrasts with the capital entering ecosystems via stablecoins.
Meanwhile, the relative unrealized profit has decreased to levels last observed in October 2023, when SOL was trading near $20. Such resets in profitability may suggest that speculative excess has been removed, positioning the market in an attractive reaccumulation zone.
The Net Realized Profit/Loss metric also showed significant negative readings in November, mirroring the substantial realized losses seen during the formation of the bottom range between February and April 2025. Historically, these patterns can precede stronger recovery cycles, but traders would need to re-engage to translate current positioning into upward momentum.
