While many eyes remain fixed on Bitcoin and Ether, Solana is currently playing a much subtler game. The SOL crypto remains above 120 dollars, supported by a massive shift in liquidity and on-chain supply. However, trader-side demand remains surprisingly timid. And as long as this gap persists, Solana’s structural advantage is not fully reflected in the price.
Key Takeaways
- •Solana is experiencing a significant shift in its on-chain flows, marked by a substantial inflow of USDC and a notable contraction in SOL supply.
- •Key market levels have been identified at $120, $135, and $142, though demand in the derivatives market remains limited.
- •Indicators suggest a re-accumulation zone is forming due to a reset in realized profit and loss (PnL) and a pullback in speculative activity; however, the return of buyers is crucial for resuming the upward trend.
A Massive Inflow of Stablecoins and a Contracting SOL Crypto Supply
Binance is currently witnessing a decrease in its cryptocurrency reserves, coinciding with record-breaking inflows of stablecoins. Specifically, USDC inflows have surpassed $2.12 billion, while over $1.11 billion worth of SOL has been withdrawn from the platform. This scenario indicates a strengthening of stablecoin liquidity precisely when the supply of SOL on order books is diminishing. For a cryptocurrency, this configuration signals the initial stages of a "supply crunch," where capital accumulates in anticipation of deployment, while the availability of tokens for immediate sale decreases.
In such market conditions, stablecoins effectively act as dormant ammunition. When USDC flows concentrate within an ecosystem like Solana, it often suggests that institutional investors or large holders are positioning themselves, though they have not yet firmly committed to purchasing. The market's awareness of this potential liquidity helps to defend significant support levels, most notably the $120 zone.
An additional noteworthy detail is the outflow of $450 million in USDT in favor of USDC. This transaction represents more than a simple stablecoin arbitrage; it also serves as a confidence indicator. Historically, an increase in USDC usage on Solana has been associated with healthier development phases, leaning more towards investment and infrastructure rather than short-term speculation. For a performance-driven cryptocurrency like SOL, this forms a constructive foundation.
On-chain Levels Marking the Terrain: $135 and $142 in Sight
On-chain data, analyzing the average cost of acquisition, reveals two substantial buyer concentrations: approximately 17.8 million SOL were purchased around the $142 mark, and another 16 million SOL were acquired near $135. These price points are more than just figures on a chart; they represent significant groups of investors with established memories, emotions, and a limited tolerance for losses.
When large clusters of holders are situated below the current price, they tend to act as a protective cushion. These holders are either at their break-even point or already in profit, giving them an incentive to defend the zone and potentially increase their holdings if the market experiences a dip. This dynamic partially explains the resilience of the support around $120, as the recent buying structure has not been entirely compromised.
Conversely, substantial clusters of holders located above the current price can create potential resistance ceilings. Investors who are "trapped" – having bought at $135 and $142 – may be inclined to sell their positions as soon as the price returns to their entry level, aiming to exit without further losses. As long as SOL fails to sustainably reclaim these two key levels, the cryptocurrency will remain within a neutral trading range, facing latent selling pressure whenever the market attempts to rise too rapidly. The true bullish turning point will be determined by a sustained rebound above $135, followed by $142, supported by significant trading volume.
Derivatives Slowing, PnL Reset: A Reaccumulation Terrain
While on-chain metrics indicate a narrative of accumulation and supply contraction, the derivatives market is showing signs of cooling down. SOL futures volume has decreased by approximately 3%. Concurrently, trading contracts for Bitcoin and Ether have seen significant increases, with Bitcoin futures rising by 43% and Ether futures by 24%. This suggests that cryptocurrency traders are adopting a more selective approach, with leveraged positions concentrating in assets other than Solana.
This relative calm in the derivatives market is not necessarily a negative development. A reduction in leverage often translates to fewer drastic liquidation events and less speculative volatility. According to metrics tracking unrealized profits, the SOL market has returned to profitability levels comparable to those observed in October 2023, a period when the token was trading around $20. This indicates that the period of excessive euphoria has subsided, and the speculative excesses of the 2024–2025 bull run have diminished, leading to the capitulation of less committed investors.
Indicators for Net Realized Profit/Loss recorded substantial realized losses in November, mirroring the patterns seen during the market bottoms experienced between February and April 2025. Historically, this type of market configuration often precedes stronger recovery cycles. However, this outcome is not guaranteed. To effectively convert this re-accumulation phase into a genuine bullish catalyst, it will be essential for spot buyers to re-enter the market, derivative traders to increase their exposure, and for stable liquidity to ultimately begin converting significantly into SOL.