Following the latest industry reports, a big claim is making rounds in crypto space. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has said there’s a 100% chance of a Solana ETF. He based his Solana ETF approval forecast on the SEC’s adoption of generic listing standards and recent S‑1 activity from issuers.
Meanwhile, the SEC has asked multiple crypto ETF issuers, including those for Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano, to withdraw their outdated 19b‑4 filings.
What the Generic Listing Standards Mean
In mid‑September 2025, the SEC approved its generic listing standards for commodity‑based trust shares, including digital assets. Under the new framework, exchanges (NYSE, Nasdaq, Cboe) can list ETFs holding spot commodities that meet pre‑set criteria without submitting a specific 19b‑4 exchange rule filing for each product.
Before, issuers had to go through a dual‑filing approach: first, the exchange would submit a 19b‑4 rule change request (triggering a statutory review “clock”), then the issuer would file an S‑1. Under the new framework, the 19b‑4 step becomes largely optional or eliminated for many compliant products.
Balchunas says this means the 19b‑4 “clock” is now irrelevant. He writes,
“Generic listing standards make the 19b‑4s and their ‘clock’ meaningless … That just leaves the S‑1s waiting for a formal green light from Corp Finance.”
By removing a major hurdle, the new rules may speed up altcoin ETF approvals, including Solana. Several ETFs filed or amended their S‑1s in response.
Current State of Solana ETF Filings and Amendments
Solana ETF issuers have been preparing for months. Early filings emerged in 2024 where 21Shares, for example, filed S‑1s for a Solana spot ETF. In 2025, multiple firms revised or filed amendments to meet changing regulatory expectations.
Most recently, Solana ETF issuers filed a fourth amendment to their S‑1s, which Balchunas says is a sign approval is near. Those amendments reportedly include staking provisions to allow funds to earn yield on Solana holdings.
But not all is smooth. Some say even with procedural reforms, the SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance still has discretion over approving or rejecting S‑1s. And while issuers may have filed amendments, there’s no clarity on when final approval will come.
Hurdles to Approval
While the case for 100% is strong, there are still some risks and uncertainties.
The SEC has substantive oversight over S‑1 registration statements. Absence of 19b‑4s doesn’t mean automatic approval; the Division of Corporation Finance can still reject or demand amendments.
SEC caution or shifting priorities could slow things down. History shows regulatory bodies move at a glacial pace.
Finally, external events such as macro volatility, political changes, or legal challenges could change the timing even if approval is inevitable.
Conclusion
Based on the latest research; the 100% Solana ETF approval forecast by Eric Balchunas is not entirely farfetched. Procedural reform via generic listing standards, withdrawal of 19b‑4s, coordinated S‑1 amendments and growing momentum have moved the needle.
However, the SEC still has discretion, staking will be scrutinized and external factors can change the timing.
Summary
Eric Balchunas predicts 100 % for Solana ETF Approval, citing generic listing standards and issuer activity. While the procedural hurdles are lower, the substantive review and staking complexities remain. Approval will open up institutional access to altcoins and accelerate ETF innovation.
Glossary
ETF (Exchange‑Traded Fund): A fund traded on exchanges, tracking an asset or index.
19b‑4 filing: A formal rule change request exchange submitted under the Securities Exchange Act to list new products.
S‑1 registration: The SEC form detailing the structure; risks, disclosures and strategy of a new fund.
Staking: Earning rewards for locking up cryptocurrency to support network operations.
Frequently Asked Questions About Solana ETF Approval
Why did Balchunas raise Solana ETF approval odds to 100%?
He believes the SEC’s generic listing standards eliminate the 19b‑4 bottleneck and current S‑1 amendments show issuers are ready, so now it’s just SEC signoff.
Does 100 % mean guaranteed approval?
Not necessarily. It means high confidence given the current signals. The SEC may still pause, request further changes or delay.
What happened to the 19b‑4s for Solana and others?
The SEC told issuers of Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, ADA and Litecoin ETFs to withdraw their 19b‑4s and align with the new listing regime.
If Solana ETF gets approved will other altcoin ETFs follow?
Probably. The new generic listing framework is designed to fast track approvals for commodity‑based ETFs more broadly including XRP, Cardano, Dogecoin.