XRP's current market structure bears a striking resemblance to conditions observed in February 2022. During that period, short-term holders strategically entered positions at price levels below the established cost bases of longer-term holders. This pattern is now re-emerging, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics.
Data from a Glassnode analytics comparison chart, which segments realized price data by coin age, reveals that investors who acquired XRP within the one-week to one-month window are currently accumulating tokens at prices lower than the realized cost basis of the six-month to twelve-month cohort. This suggests a divergence in accumulation strategies between different investor timeframes.
This specific configuration mirrors the market environment approximately four years ago. At that time, shorter-term buyers actively absorbed supply from older holders during a transitional phase in the market, which eventually led to significant price movements.
Accumulation by Shorter-Term Holders Below Older Coin Supply
Between the close of 2021 and the initial two months of 2022, XRP experienced a period of distribution and consolidation that preceded a bearish phase. During this time, XRP surged by 47%, reaching a high of $0.9. The current market sentiment in early 2026 began with a similar bearish undertone, and small price gains could potentially lead to a comparable price charge by February.
Short-term realized price bands have dipped below those of the six-to-twelve-month cohort, while the aggregated realized price has flattened. XRP's spot price has been trading within a relatively tight range between $2.6 and $1.9 over the past six months.
The strongest concentration of liquidity and trading activity is currently observed between $2.02 and $2.01. However, the immediate support level is situated slightly lower, around $1.97 to $1.99. If resistance levels thin out, XRP bulls would encounter their first significant barrier at the $2.05–$2.06 range. Should momentum pick up, a sustained move above this range could help the token set a course towards $2.08 and potentially higher prices.
While the current price action is undoubtedly muted, a significant repositioning of assets is occurring. This involves new holders entering the market and existing buyers who may be losing hope of an imminent XRP bull run. Data from CryptoQuant indicates that wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP have increased their combined balances from approximately 11.14 billion tokens to around 11.17 billion tokens.
Although this increase is modest in percentage terms, it signifies continued engagement from large holders during a period of stagnant price momentum. Concurrently, addresses holding between 1 and 10 million XRP have raised their balances from about 3.54 billion to 3.59 billion coins, representing an addition of nearly $100 million in exposure.
These inflows commenced around January 14. The following day, the older cohort briefly reduced their exposure as XRP's price experienced a correction towards the red zone.
Long-term holders collectively held approximately 223,201,195 XRP last Friday. By Sunday, this figure had risen to approximately 234.8 million tokens, marking a 5.2% increase in holdings within just two days. Accumulating tokens during a market pullback could signal that market participants are willing to absorb short-term volatility, anticipating that the asset may not decline further.
XRP Open Interest Signals Highest Volatility Since November
According to CryptoQuant analyst Arabchain, XRP's total open interest has reached approximately $566.48 million, surpassing the 30-day moving average of around $528.84 million. This positive gap suggests that new positions are entering the market, although not at an aggressive pace.
This muted spike in open interest aligns with the relatively stable spot price of Ripple's token. However, the standard deviation of open interest over the past 30 days has increased to approximately $65.7 million, reaching its highest level since last November.
Historically, increases in open interest volatility have often preceded periods of significant price movements, either upward surges or profound dips, as leverage and positioning begin to diverge. Despite this, Arabchain noted that the 30-day rolling Z-score, which measures how far current open interest deviates from its mean adjusted for volatility, remains moderate at around 0.57.
A level near or above extreme thresholds typically indicates overheated market conditions. Therefore, the analyst believes that leverage has not yet reached excessive levels.
Meanwhile, trading for US XRP spot ETFs is scheduled to continue today, following a brief pause for Martin Luther King Jr. Day on Monday. The investment fund concluded the previous business week with $1.12 million in inflows, bringing its total net assets to $1.5 billion.